1938

Some analysts believe Kyiv is buying the west time on the precipice of a world war. Is it being used wisely?

Those analysts are correct. We’re in a extremely dangerous moment now that is going almost unrecognized. The US is very cynically providing Ukraine just enough supplies to tie down Russia as the Ukrainians slowly lose while most of Europe sits on its hands, useless and clueless. This inaction is emboldening China. The fact is, the US (and any large nation) cannot go isolationist. That’s just absolutely not the sort of world we live in anymore — nor is it likely to return.

There is about an 80% chance the US and allies will be at war with China by 2032, and about a 60% chance Russia will attack Estonia, Poland or another state by then too. Thus, there will be horrible and devastating wars on two fronts. We should do anything — anything at all — to avoid this right now. Later will be (as the word implies) too late.

The thing we should be doing is defeating Russia in Ukraine with all available methods. This is the deterrent. This will put the genie of future war back in the lamp. Nothing else will, alas. I know it’s not what anyone wants to hear but it is what is true.