Nov 12

Futurity

Apparently, Michael Moore can see the future.

This was written in July, 2016. Moore said Trump would win. And he was right. But this is particularly prescient.

I believe Trump is going to focus much of his attention on the four blue states in the rustbelt of the upper Great Lakes – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Four traditionally Democratic states – but each of them have elected a Republican governor since 2010 (only Pennsylvania has now finally elected a Democrat).

Hillary was supposed to pick up at least two of those states handily.

She didn’t. And here we are.

Moore, can I get those lottery numbers from you now?

Nov 12

Arriviste

Arrival is a good film.

I wanted it to be longer; I wanted more linguistics. I wanted more of Amy Adams, who was excellent and convincing, brave and afraid. The linguistics as presented was simplified but accurate. The film was also obviously abridged for the theater and perhaps one day there will be a director’s cut.

At the end, I could even read a little of the Heptapodian language, too. (It’s like super-Chinese with nonlinear orthography and as with Chinese no verb conjugation, relying on modifying radially-presented radicals etc.)

If you are hearing about a twist ending, there was no twist that I saw. It was obvious what was occurring but then again I am steeped in sf so even though I’ve never read the source novella I’m deep in the genre. Results may vary.

Recommended.

Nov 12

Excuse making and finger pointing

According to stunned and delusional Dems, Hillary lost because:

  • Bernie Bros
  • KGB
  • Krampus
  • Space Aliens
  • Tony Danza
  • Voter Suppression (only somewhat plausible one on the list*)
  • FBI coup
  • Evil liberals who had the temerity to utter any word of criticism
  • Dumbledore

Here’s why actually Hillary lost: she was a reviled and terrible candidate whose strength was in the South where she had little to no chance of winning anyway. I said that before the election. So did many others. Voters stayed away in droves because she was about as inspiring as a three-day-old Taco Bell chalupa that a swarm of roaches has gnawed on.

Bernie would have won in a landslide. Likely Elizabeth Warren, too. Hell, a toaster would’ve been more likely to win it than she was.

Nominate someone who is unelectable, who is already the most-disliked candidate in history before she even begins campaigning, and you end up a loser. Simple as that.

*Though once you realize the truth of Tony Danza, why vote? Why do anything?

Nov 11

Stuck in a bad trade

Chris Arnade writes sometimes about being stuck in a bad trade.

He also writes about the poor and the invisible Americans.

I’ve been all of those things so I know what he means pretty deeply. I feel it.

Doubt I ever would’ve voted for Trump even if I’d stayed in my home town (including that I likely would’ve lost my voting rights as I would’ve become a convicted felon at some point) but I understand. I completely get it.

Years ago after I escaped Lake City, I lost $20,000 in a few minutes one time. Just like that. Bad trade. Gone. Still felt horrible even with six figures in my bank account. Devastating.

And I grew up poor. Yeah, we had a computer but we often had nothing in the fridge. No income, no car in a rural area because it got repossessed. That sort of thing.

Imagine being in a bad trade for fuckin’ life. That’s what it’s like where I grew up, 24/7/365, for many people.

And then imagine being a little kid (me) and the parents of some rich kids literally laughing at you to your face when you tell them you want to be a scientist when you grow up. Imagine that. I don’t have to.

Most people don’t understand how Wrong of a Wrong Family I was from where I grew up. But I could link you to the mugshots.

So I understand voting for Trump. I was those people.

I grew up fighting and I lived my life fighting. No, I didn’t make it on my own. So many people helped. But I still fought for every thing I have and am.

And as anyone who grew up fighting knows, sometimes even when you’re absolutely sure you are going to get trounced, even when you know without a doubt that getting up again and swinging at that bully is going to end very badly for you, you still do it any damn way.

Trump’s victory is millions of Americans standing up again and through the blood running down their faces throwing out one more wild, self-destructive punch.

And I know just how that feels and why you’d do that.

Nov 11

Nothing and nothing equals

Well, Trump definitely matters for the Supreme Court, but not about the actual more important potentially civilization-ending issue of our times. Yep, the one barely-mentioned during the campaign: climate change.

Here’s what Clinton would have done about climate change: nothing.

Here’s what Trump is going to do about climate change: nothing.

So there’s that.

Nov 10

False narratives

Strangely, the narrative is becoming that the polls were actually correct, and the pseudo-scientific polling gurus’ predictions too, despite as I mentioned in a post below there being absolutely no evidence of that at all — and plenty of counterevidence.

The tendency of smart people (and I know because I share the tendency) is to justify even after they are proven really wrong how they were actually right.

No, in this case the polls were woefully wrong. The predictions also.

Don’t believe the narrative about poll accuracy. They simply were not.

They are attempting to re-shape reality so they don’t lose power. And we should not let them.

Nov 09

The long

This was the whole problem with Clinton all along that tons of people including me were shouting from the rooftops:

clinton

Run an unelectable candidate, turns out she doesn’t get elected.

Imagine that. (From here.)

Nov 09

Signs

The fact that I saw Trump/Pence bumper stickers and signs at a 100:1 ratio to Clinton/whoever that guy is was it turns out a pretty good, uh, sign of what was to come.

Never have I seen a nominee so loathed by so many that save for a few fanatics even her own party could barely muster an iota of excitement about her candidacy.

I do live in a reddish state, but in a very Dem area of the state (my county went Clinton 58%+ and the neighboring one went Clinton nearly 79%).

Nov 09

Nope

Look at this ass-covering from Nate Silver (whom I normally like). This is just wrong (I am excluding the few polls taken on election day, and I assume “2014” means “2016”):

nope

Unfortunately, presidential elections are won on the state level not the national. It doesn’t matter at all by how much Hillary won the popular vote. It matters which states she won or did not.

And double nope.

Come on, just admit you were wrong. Almost everyone was…the polls were just bad this year, among other issues.

For instance most polls had Trump and/or Clinton up 1 or narrowly losing by 1 in Ohio:

ohio2

Here’s what actually happened:

ohio

A 9 point spread. That’s so far out of the margin of error that it also moved to Canada. So much for that whole business. Shit, Nate, don’t sweat it.