Discontinuities

Wall Street’s Crisis Began Four Months Before the First Reported Death from Coronavirus in China; Here’s the Proof.

Indeed it did. This was not at all reported in the general press, but it was well-known in the market community. There’s a reason I sold some underperforming stocks months before I’d ever heard of Covid-19. I wanted the free cash for what was to come.

What was to come has now arrived, and it’s so much worse because of Covid-19 — but anything could’ve triggered it.

To be clear, I don’t sell many stocks. My strategy is generally very Warren Buffet-like: I buy good companies at cheap prices and hold them a long time. I don’t sell because I think the market is going to crash. That’s a fool’s game and an excellent way to lose money on both sides of the trade. My predictive power is not that great.

However, I knew something was going to happen soon. All the signs pointed to it, so I jettisoned my losers and mediocre stocks to get ready.