I’ve been trying to make sense of the actual risk of Long Covid vs. the propaganda promulgated by those who are still panicked about Covid. I’ve read a lot studies, including those cited breathlessly by the still Covid-terrified. And from what I can tell, the above gets it about right. Your risk of Long Covid is incredibly small if you are not already sick in some way, or very old — especially if you have been vaccinated.
But these numbers do still give some context as to the rates of these issues in people infected with COVID-19. At a population level, long COVID represents an elevated risk that could be meaningful: An extra two cases of diabetes per 10,000 people over 60 would be quite a few people nationally. At an individual level, however, they are much less alarming. The chance that you will be one of—maybe—five people out of many thousands who have long-term fatigue two years after COVID-19 is quite low. It certainly isn’t as worrying as the health issues posed by heart disease or cancer.
I’m not worried about Covid at all and Long Covid even less than that (heh). It just is not a thing anymore.