Apr 13

Thanatical

And in reality, probably 40,000+ deaths so far. We’ll see later after statistical analyses of excess deaths.

Apr 13

Goldman

Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in.

Goldman Sachs is probably wrong, though I only have about 60% confidence in this. This depends on if we go into a depression, or a mega-depression, which in turn depends on how soon we can re-open the economy.

If “just” a depression, stocks have probably already bottomed. If mega-depression, then they’ll go about 50% below where they are now.

Just too many unknowns, although there likely aren’t many unknown unknowns. All the paths are bad, and we’re going to walk at least one of them.

Apr 13

Sources and Ideas

Wow, people are just powerful stupid. Of course you can keep people employed this way. That’s all employment is — a tacit agreement, invisible but real. Preserving that arrangement is exactly what that check does.

I am always surprised by how volubly clueless so many people are. Being clueless is ok, I guess, but do you have to advertise it so loudly and publicly?

Apr 13

Exec

No. Just executed. Simple enough.

Apr 13

Modes

If we allow the USPS to declare bankruptcy, we will have fully transitioned to a failed state. There will no longer be any question or any reasonable doubt. When vital government services start disappearing overnight that’s what a failed state is, definitionally.

It’s becoming clear in all that has occurred that the Covid-19 pandemic, while obviously not a hoax, is being used as the disaster to clear all opposition to neoliberalism as we transition to a fully cyberpunk neo-feudalist future. The only reason to destroy the USPS now is the one I mentioned.

America has failed, and we allowed it to happen. We deserve what we get.

Apr 12

No Tanking

I want to start a think tank. I’ll call it “Stop Doing Dumb Shit.” It’ll be for exactly what it says on the tin.

Pay me $100,000 a year if you’re rich or a million a year if you’re a corporation and I will tell you how to stop doing dumb shit. If you run your ideas and plans by me, I will prevent you from doing horrendously dumb shit.

For ten times the price I’ll tell you how to do intelligent things. But that’s not most people’s problem nor is it where most corporations fail. It’s that they do dumb shit and it hamstrings them. Thus, they never even get around to pondering doing something smart.