My opinion vacillates from day to day and week to week, but given human nature and our lack of any long-term scope, I think the chance of an actual civilization on this planet surviving climate change (rather than just ragtag nomadic bands of survivors with very low tech) is around ten percent.
Does every advanced culture experience climate change, thus dooming their civilizations as well? Not enough data to go on – but I doubt we are special, so even with the lack of information I think it likely.
The chance that we do anything substantive about climate change is almost nil. Liberals and conservatives, both being human, are just as susceptible to the same biases — the primary one being that because it’ll happen over hundreds of years, that it is not in fact a slow-motion apocalypse.
Most people can’t see beyond their own noses, so this is no surprise.
Humans are extremely maladapted to what’s happening now, and of course at the very worst time for it, old people who will experience no consequences of climate change are in charge and slurping up all resources for themselves.
It’d be a different world if 25-year-olds were in charge. Though other things would suffer, some correct decisions on climate change would be made and really, that’s the only meaningful decision domain there is today.
The rest really don’t matter at all long-term or even medium-term.
Don’t trust anyone over 30 indeed….