Strike

A surprise Ukrainian attack into Russiaโ€™s Kursk region raised questions about whether Kyivโ€™s forces violated U.S. restrictions on the use of donated fighting vehicles.

Idiotic restrictions. Without the ability to strike equipment staging areas and troop rally points behind the lines, Ukraine has no hope. I am glad Ukraine violated these pointless constraints (if they did). It’s hard to fight the enemy with one hand tied behind your back.

I think this incursion is from a military perspective strategically pointless, but from a political perspective is probably useful.

Rets and Cons

The belief that everyone knew Trump was going to win was retconned while simultaneously the “polls were wrong” (which was actually the case) was branded a conspiracy theory. I don’t completely understand why the various panjandrums thought this necessary but there was a serious and concerted effort to defend the terribly wrong 2016 polls from Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — even though it was obvious that many of the so-called reputable polls conducted in those places were often off by 10+ points.

And when I say “serious effort,” there were hundreds of columns defending the polling, Nate Silver basically went nuts for an entire year, and fake scientists came out of the woodwork claiming absolute nonsense about statistics and polling.

I guess this was just the official narrative and narrative-makers being defended and defending themselves after the fact?

Advance

Kursk: Russia says it halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory. Evidence suggests it hasnโ€™t.

Oh, I have no doubt that Russia halted the advance of Ukrainian troops. This was a risky, bold move against a foe with a lot of resources and no concern with human life. But I doubt that they’ve driven the Ukrainians back yet.

The whole point of this is to make the Russians feel vulnerable to attack. Anyone who went on this raid knew it was a suicide mission and most of them will stay in place until they’re dead. Against a determined enemy operating with that mindset, the Russians will find them to be hard to kill and hard to displace.

Was this worth it for the Ukrainian side? If I were a commander, I don’t think I would’ve done it. Losing hundreds of people in something doomed to fail when soldiers are already in short supply seems not a great idea. But I’m also not that PR-focused. And the PR side of demonstrating that Russia cannot operate with impunity and is itself vulnerable is worth something — both as an advertisement for more aid and to sow doubt in Russia itself.

Doors

I wonder how much of the Chinese tech we’ve all bought (including the government and military) is backdoored? Probably a lot of it. Guess we’ll find out when the invasion of Taiwan happens.

That should be fun.

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