Lyman estimates true Coronavirus death toll, based on excess mortality of at least 200,000 in the US https://t.co/f40nSaPXOV

— Arpit Gupta (@arpitrage) June 22, 2020

This is about my guess, too. I thought 180,000 based on some numbers I was casually playing with. They did a real analysis, so 200,000 seems reasonable.