Jan 20

Party up

What a time. We have one party that is both naive, stupid, and delusional conspiracy theorists. That’d be the Democrats.

And the other party is evil, stupid and sadists. That’d be the Republicans.

The only commonality is stupidity.

Great.

Jan 20

Four comparison

I obviously think Obama was a pretty shit president. I knew from the moment he picked Larry Summers for a cabinet position during his first term that he would be, that his campaign like Trump’s was all built on lies.

However, Trump will probably make Obama look good. He will by comparison appear to actually be the cool audacious super-competent genius that his delusional supporters claim that he is.

Trump is what you get when you care about crap like “cool” actions and “audacious” speeches rather than actually making people’s lives better.

It’s going to be a long four years.

Jan 19

Economics needs better liars

I really like economics. I think about the field a great deal and read loads of books, papers and articles about it.

However it is a field with a lot of potential, but perhaps no future, because it is full of liars — and the best sorts of fabulists, too, as they don’t even know they are making things up.

Like this. The data is fine. Nothing wrong with it. The interpretation however leaves much to be desired.

Funny how decreases in productivity growth have nothing at all to do with vast increases in inequality, the weakening of labor and various “free” trade treaties that discourage automation.*

No, this of all things is the explanation.

Rather, the important factor after 2003 is slower growth in innovation.

No. This is stupid. The benefits of innovation have barely even been realized because we never even tried it. Instead, we destroyed labor, thus making it artificially cheap and then thought it was great having 20 burger flippers making $7.25 an hour rather than two robot burger flippers and a single human robot minder.

The paper I linked is mendacious by omission; it ignores many of the largest factors causing a productivity stall in Western countries and cites the one that almost definitely is not true.

Some way to run a “science.”

*If all the gains accrue only to capital owners, it’s not clear that automation is actually beneficial and almost certainly would not be as things stand now.

Jan 18

Gatored

My partner and I saw a gator this large in the wild in Lake City, FL, a few years ago.

Seeing an alligator in Florida is not hard. Just, like, go near water and look around. But one this large is a bit rarer.

BTW those people are way too close — even a gator that large can move at 20mph or so if it wants to. I know it looks lethargic and poky. But it ain’t when it don’t wanna be.

Jan 18

Natty Min

Given productivity increases, the “natural” minimum wage is probably ~$20 per hour.

I’d not expect to see large disemployment effects in most of the US for any level set below that.

I do agree with economists that the minimum wage can in principle product such effects, just not that it does so at $7.25 an hour, and even if it does so the social benefits by far outweigh the drawbacks.

As a digression, economists drooling over validation by physicists and mathematicians have caused almost as much harm as straight ideology per se. The consequences of inter-academic signaling and prestige hierarchies is under-examined, IMO.

Jan 17

Quantum Fizz

If quantum physics weren’t true, the calmest fire would emit copiously at every frequency, including in the x-ray and gamma ray range. The smallest fire would, in other words, kill you if you stood close to it.

Of course if quantum physics were untrue, you wouldn’t be alive anyway.

Just some assorted crap I was thinking about.

Jan 16

The naive materialists

How can people believe that probability exists sans humans, or at least sans consciousness?

Humans created probability. In the universe absent us, events simply occur or they do not. No probability. Not even the possibility of probability.

Much of science seems intent on importing human biases into areas where they only obscure, not illuminate.