Nov 12

Excuse making and finger pointing

According to stunned and delusional Dems, Hillary lost because:

  • Bernie Bros
  • KGB
  • Krampus
  • Space Aliens
  • Tony Danza
  • Voter Suppression (only somewhat plausible one on the list*)
  • FBI coup
  • Evil liberals who had the temerity to utter any word of criticism
  • Dumbledore

Here’s why actually Hillary lost: she was a reviled and terrible candidate whose strength was in the South where she had little to no chance of winning anyway. I said that before the election. So did many others. Voters stayed away in droves because she was about as inspiring as a three-day-old Taco Bell chalupa that a swarm of roaches has gnawed on.

Bernie would have won in a landslide. Likely Elizabeth Warren, too. Hell, a toaster would’ve been more likely to win it than she was.

Nominate someone who is unelectable, who is already the most-disliked candidate in history before she even begins campaigning, and you end up a loser. Simple as that.

*Though once you realize the truth of Tony Danza, why vote? Why do anything?

Nov 11

Stuck in a bad trade

Chris Arnade writes sometimes about being stuck in a bad trade.

He also writes about the poor and the invisible Americans.

I’ve been all of those things so I know what he means pretty deeply. I feel it.

Doubt I ever would’ve voted for Trump even if I’d stayed in my home town (including that I likely would’ve lost my voting rights as I would’ve become a convicted felon at some point) but I understand. I completely get it.

Years ago after I escaped Lake City, I lost $20,000 in a few minutes one time. Just like that. Bad trade. Gone. Still felt horrible even with six figures in my bank account. Devastating.

And I grew up poor. Yeah, we had a computer but we often had nothing in the fridge. No income, no car in a rural area because it got repossessed. That sort of thing.

Imagine being in a bad trade for fuckin’ life. That’s what it’s like where I grew up, 24/7/365, for many people.

And then imagine being a little kid (me) and the parents of some rich kids literally laughing at you to your face when you tell them you want to be a scientist when you grow up. Imagine that. I don’t have to.

Most people don’t understand how Wrong of a Wrong Family I was from where I grew up. But I could link you to the mugshots.

So I understand voting for Trump. I was those people.

I grew up fighting and I lived my life fighting. No, I didn’t make it on my own. So many people helped. But I still fought for every thing I have and am.

And as anyone who grew up fighting knows, sometimes even when you’re absolutely sure you are going to get trounced, even when you know without a doubt that getting up again and swinging at that bully is going to end very badly for you, you still do it any damn way.

Trump’s victory is millions of Americans standing up again and through the blood running down their faces throwing out one more wild, self-destructive punch.

And I know just how that feels and why you’d do that.

Nov 11

Nothing and nothing equals

Well, Trump definitely matters for the Supreme Court, but not about the actual more important potentially civilization-ending issue of our times. Yep, the one barely-mentioned during the campaign: climate change.

Here’s what Clinton would have done about climate change: nothing.

Here’s what Trump is going to do about climate change: nothing.

So there’s that.

Nov 10

False narratives

Strangely, the narrative is becoming that the polls were actually correct, and the pseudo-scientific polling gurus’ predictions too, despite as I mentioned in a post below there being absolutely no evidence of that at all — and plenty of counterevidence.

The tendency of smart people (and I know because I share the tendency) is to justify even after they are proven really wrong how they were actually right.

No, in this case the polls were woefully wrong. The predictions also.

Don’t believe the narrative about poll accuracy. They simply were not.

They are attempting to re-shape reality so they don’t lose power. And we should not let them.

Nov 09

The long

This was the whole problem with Clinton all along that tons of people including me were shouting from the rooftops:

clinton

Run an unelectable candidate, turns out she doesn’t get elected.

Imagine that. (From here.)

Nov 09

Signs

The fact that I saw Trump/Pence bumper stickers and signs at a 100:1 ratio to Clinton/whoever that guy is was it turns out a pretty good, uh, sign of what was to come.

Never have I seen a nominee so loathed by so many that save for a few fanatics even her own party could barely muster an iota of excitement about her candidacy.

I do live in a reddish state, but in a very Dem area of the state (my county went Clinton 58%+ and the neighboring one went Clinton nearly 79%).

Nov 09

Nope

Look at this ass-covering from Nate Silver (whom I normally like). This is just wrong (I am excluding the few polls taken on election day, and I assume “2014” means “2016”):

nope

Unfortunately, presidential elections are won on the state level not the national. It doesn’t matter at all by how much Hillary won the popular vote. It matters which states she won or did not.

And double nope.

Come on, just admit you were wrong. Almost everyone was…the polls were just bad this year, among other issues.

For instance most polls had Trump and/or Clinton up 1 or narrowly losing by 1 in Ohio:

ohio2

Here’s what actually happened:

ohio

A 9 point spread. That’s so far out of the margin of error that it also moved to Canada. So much for that whole business. Shit, Nate, don’t sweat it.

Nov 09

Poll-itics

My prelim analysis.

Obviously, the polls were very wrong. But why?

From what I can tell, Trump get a much larger percentage of the Republican woman vote than expected, and (likely) slightly higher than Romney in 2012. Misogyny at least among this group didn’t tarnish him at all.

And he got a larger percentage of the Latino vote than Romney. Not surprising — legal immigrants often absolutely loathe illegal ones.

My private supposition: enough Bernie voters moved to Trump to also tip the balance.

The narrative will be just that rural enraged white males made the difference. But I’m guessing that the above factors I mentioned are the real difference.

Nov 09

About Tronald Dump

Don’t get me wrong — Trump winning is a terrible tragedy for our nation. But it’s one that was completely avoidable. The DNC (in the immediate, not systemic sense) is as much to blame as the Trump voters is what I am saying.

Unfortunately, being able to make fun of the clueless Clinton sycophants will not make up for the calamity that will be the next four years.

I should have stuck to my guns about the election when I said this — turns out that even I listened to the elites late in the process more than I should have.

There’s also going to be a whole lot of secret Trump voters who will not tell anyone they are intending to vote for Trump — even pollsters — yet will do so anyway. This is why many of the polls even right up to the election will be wrong.

Damn, me of 8 months ago was much more correct than me of two days ago. Ha. Here’s what I wrote then in full:

Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it.

Can and will; Clinton will not win in the general any of the Southern states where she was strongest in the primaries, whereas Donald Trump is likely to win most of the Northeast states where he is strongest.

Clinton is a bad pick in general, but a particularly bad pick against Trump where her election and campaign weaknesses are imperfectly arrayed against Trump’s very strengths.

I didn’t and don’t support Clinton or Sanders (or Trump), but Sanders would’ve been far more likely to defeat Trump in the kind of matchup we’re moving towards.

And when Trump inevitably gets a landslide against Clinton due to her weakness in Southern states, the pundits will all be completely stunned, etc.

Also don’t forget just how rabid the hatred is for Clinton — many people who don’t vote are too young to remember the 90s, but I was there and haven’t forgotten. There’s a whole gaggle of people who will show up solely to vote against Clinton, whereas most liberals won’t bother about Trump.

There’s also going to be a whole lot of secret Trump voters who will not tell anyone they are intending to vote for Trump — even pollsters — yet will do so anyway. This is why many of the polls even right up to the election will be wrong.

Get used to saying “President Trump,” is what I’m telling you.