Apr 02

It Became

#metoo was something needed and legitimate at the very start. But it was quickly co-opted by white “liberal feminists” who used it for their own ends — mainly to clear dating market competition and to advance their own careers and interests.

This is why it failed and is now harming more than it helps.

Apr 01

Not Well Met

This is not a good metaphor. At all. A modern economy just does not work anything like respiration at any level. It’s not even remotely applicable. It is an example of the Paulian “not even wrong.”

The economy does not hold its breath. If you want to imagine it as something more static for comprehensibility, the economy is much more like a coffee cup on the edge of a counter. As long as you pour your coffee carefully, nothing goes wrong. But do a poor pour, and the coffee cup falls to the floor and shatters and the coffee spills everywhere.

After that, there is no credible way to reassemble the shattered cup and also no way to return all of the coffee to the cup. That state is lost forever. Entropy has intruded, and all at once. The relations between all those pieces cannot be completely re-established. The cup will likely never hold any beverage properly again. Perhaps a new cup can be re-assembled from the pieces, or if not they might be melted down and manufactured into another, much different cup or some other useful object. But it will not work or look the same no matter what, and it most likely will not function again at all.

And remember, the coffee cup is not a complex dynamic system like the economy. The outlook is even worse in that case, not better.

Apr 01

Your Models Do Not Apply

There has never in modern history been a reduction in economic activity so great and so swift as what we’re experiencing now. During wartime, remember, economic activity in many places increases enormously. Thus, wartime analogies are completely invalid. It’s bad thinking.

I don’t know what exactly is going to happen. It depends on how long the economy is hobbled. But I can tell you it’s going to be not a bit like most of the pundits prognosticate or expect.

The level of apocalypticness of course depends on the length of the shutdown. Yes, yes, I understand the economy is not completely shut down — just like at first the engine in your car is not completely shut down when it throws a piston. But drive a few more feet and then it’ll be a different story.

All of the models do not apply. There is no guide for this, no map, and the tail risks are large.

Apr 01

No Gov

The Democrats do not want to govern. It’s as simple as that. If there were any other explanation, I’d offer it. But there’s not.

Mar 31

Taiwan

We used to have these things and more. We destroyed them all. And no, it wasn’t just Trump, though he certainly did his part. Every President since Reagan (including Clinton and everyone’s favorite, Obama) played their role in allowing our systems to be gutted.

And now we see the results.

Mar 31

Decline

Still thinking about this. But decline of trust in government and in general is occurring everywhere, nearly.