The first thing I will do when I stop working is to throw my smartphone in the garbage.

Such joy is rarely known by humans.

A few years ago on an old blog of mine, I was made fun of for asserting that the price of photovoltaic solar cells would fall drastically as a similar effect to Moore’s Law would occur in that area.

The commenter wasn’t doing anything unusual; this was “common knowledge.” But like much common knowledge, it was wrong.

According to conventional wisdom at the time, the price of solar cells would never — not in a million years — be as cheap as they are right now. And they are still falling.

Yes, sometimes conventional wisdom is right. But much of the time it’s just prejudice, status quo bias, and sheer incompetence talking.

Donald Trump can actually beat Hillary in November: Stubborn pundits still refuse to accept it.

Can and will; Clinton will not win in the general any of the Southern states where she was strongest in the primaries, whereas Donald Trump is likely to win most of the Northeast states where he is strongest.

Clinton is a bad pick in general, but a particularly bad pick against Trump where her election and campaign weaknesses are imperfectly arrayed against Trump’s very strengths.

I didn’t and don’t support Clinton or Sanders (or Trump), but Sanders would’ve been far more likely to defeat Trump in the kind of matchup we’re moving towards.

And when Trump inevitably gets a landslide against Clinton due to her weakness in Southern states, the pundits will all be completely stunned, etc.

Also don’t forget just how rabid the hatred is for Clinton — many people who don’t vote are too young to remember the 90s, but I was there and haven’t forgotten. There’s a whole gaggle of people who will show up solely to vote against Clinton, whereas most liberals won’t bother about Trump.

There’s also going to be a whole lot of secret Trump voters who will not tell anyone they are intending to vote for Trump — even pollsters — yet will do so anyway. This is why many of the polls even right up to the election will be wrong.

Get used to saying “President Trump,” is what I’m telling you.

Remember how it was common knowledge a few years ago that tablets were fated to completely replace PCs, that by 2016 PCs on a desk would be as rare as ethics in an investment bank?

Yeah, not so much. I was one of the few people pushing back against that idea, and I was right.

The problem with tablets is that they aren’t really all that portable (where a smartphone is better) and you can’t get anything done on them. A real computer is a far better productivity tool.

At least 60% (and probably more) of the fall of PC sales is due to the fact they last longer now — a five-year-old PC is just as good as a new one, which was not true at all for the first twenty years of personal computer history.

But apparently people were shocked that sales fall when the replacement rate declines.