That is extremely plausible. The time to do this would be when the US is distracted by Iran. I’d also expect China to attempt moves on Taiwan around the same time as Russia attempts to take the Baltic states.
Prediction
AI In
This person is viewing the outcome discussed as a good thing, and I do not agree with that. Their politics are not mine. However, I do concur that this will be the result of AI infiltrating the economy.
And it is going to cause a lot of economic devastation.
The AI Risk
The risk of AI is not that it doesn’t work. It already does, no matter what the BlueSky clowns claim.
The risk is that it eliminates jobs and funnels even more money to the rich while creating a permanent underclass of former white-collar professionals.
Unlike what economists believe, those people won’t find any other roles as anything else they could do can be performed better and vastly faster by AI. And no one seems to be dealing with this fact at all in any credible way.
Droning Onward
I was talking about this with a friend and my partner recently. A war with the US involved would not look like this. Drones are not omnipotent nor are they immune from physical reality. Extensive use of drone warfare to the level of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is an artifact of limited personnel, poorly-developed anti-drone defenses (including EW) and lack of funding for superior non-drone resources.
That is, drones are in use so heavily there because it is the best of a lot of bad options. Other players like the United States and China have superior options so any war with major well-resourced nations would not at all look like the Russia-Ukraine War. People really do have trouble contextualizing events and the vicissitudes of fate and circumstance and don’t seem to realize that what’s occurring in Ukraine will not be how war would look everywhere for every combatant.
Note that I am not saying that drones would not be used in, for example, a US-China war. They absolutely would, and heavily. They are now an unavoidable feature of modern warfare. However, the US already has better anti-drone defenses than Ukraine is ever to likely lay hands on. Those are also improving all the time.
Another point: Drones are very large targets on radar, very slow1, and not that powerful. In other words, they are quite easy to shoot down with the appropriate technology. A drone is just a cheap, slow missile, and the US is actually quite good at dealing with those.
Drones appear all-powerful because Russia and Ukraine use them by necessity and have poor counter-drone defenses. That will not be true of every conflict and is very specific to the circumstances of a single war.
At Speed
AI already bests the dumbest 70% of the population at cognition and nearly 100% at speed.
It is only going to improve. Prepare yourselves accordingly.
Retreat Defeat
I’m wondering if non-Muslims in Europe will eventually be forced to retreat from their current homes and create an Israel-like state somewhere in Western or Eastern Europe. Most likely. Maybe a stronghold can be created by consolidating Poland/Latvia/Lithuania/Estonia and some parts of Finland. If Russia is contained, that would be pretty militarily defensible against encroaching Islamization.
The real worry is that after Muslims take over France — which is almost inevitable — they will then have nuclear weapons.
The Islamization of Europe is going to be very bad news for everyone.
Added Death
This will have far worse long-term consequences than anything happening with ICE or probably even conflict with China/Russia.
I’d estimate this and other anti-initiatives will produce drastically lower GDP and somewhere between 600,000 to 2,000,0000 early deaths, depending on if there is a novel pandemic in the next twenty years or not.
Of Any Concern
I don’t agree with all of this, but Europe pretending to defend Greenland while doing nearly nothing to defend Ukraine with actual troops == fucking INSANE. Do they not care that if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, then their own countries will be overrun with Russian (really conscripted slave Ukrainian) meat waves? Is that not of any concern to the EU? Apparently not.
Well, they dug their grave. Russia will put them in it.
Air Def
We do seem to have gotten the best of Russian-built air defenses. I bet there’s some classified secret sauce stuff going on there that we’ll find out about in a decade.
China Take
Correct. China will attempt to take Taiwan no matter what. That has been set in stone for decades. Trump might change the timing slightly. That’s all.
Liter8
I get this dawning sense of gloom that being educated and well-read in America is going to become like being part of those populations of severely endangered species that always have tragic mating failures in zoos. And then they all sort of dwindle until they’re a postcard.
— A.V. Marraccini (@saintsoftness) December 6, 2025
This is already occurring. Neal Stephenson was right. I predict we’ll revert to roughly the historical norm with about 10-20% of the population literate to any degree. The rest will only be capable of watching and sending video and can recognize the occasional word.
What would stop that outcome? Nothing that I can see.
Sys and Sys
Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare.
Finally! Someone who knows what the fuck is going on and how China will handle a war with the US.
Yes, this is how China would do it. I could’ve written this myself. If I’d had an army of consultants and a boatload of time. There are still people left somewhere who can think about the actual world as it is rather than as they imagine it to be. Cool.
Paying Out
Russian spy ship ‘directed lasers’ at UK forces, says defense secretary.
Again, NATO is already at war with Russia. It’s just that no one besides Russia is acting like it.
We should actively be kicking Russia out of Ukraine now with 500,000 troops as well as shoring up defenses in the Baltics and Poland. Germany as well.
But we aren’t and won’t. And we’ll pay for that heavily in a few years.
Actual War
No, China won’t do much if any bridge-blowing. First, it’s not a very effective tactic compared to the alternatives. Bridges are extremely strong (for obvious reasons) so it’s not actually easy to take most of them out with conventional weapons. Second, the US has an extensive road network with many alternate routes.
What China would actually do to hobble our logistics is bomb our seaports and data centers. This is much easier, much more effective, and these are vastly harder to do impromptu repairs on.
Camping
The job market is going to look drastically, radically different in five years. We are about to see the largest job loss since most manufacturing decamped for China and Mexico.
Get ready.