NTSB Report

NTSB Issues Investigative Update on B-767 Runway Excursion Accident in Miami.

That CVR transcript is damning. It shows a entire series of easily-preventable mistakes and aircraft mismanagement. It’s amazing something worse didn’t happen.

Deciding to go around and then not following through? Clownish. They knew they were way above the glide slope and still attempted to land, came in far too fast and could not slow down.

Pilot error all the way.

Plodin’

The implosion of the Titan submarine (OceanGate) was so rapid that the pain wasn’t even registered by the brain. They didn’t feel anything at all. Utterly instantaneous.

Correct.

Using standard fluid dynamics equations (Bernoulli) to determine inrush velocity, water would accelerate into the void of the submersible at approximately 260 meters per second. Given the approximate size of the sub, the time to close the void would be around 2.7ms.

Standard minimum neural response time for any stimuli to register consciously is ~100ms.

Those people were all dead (converted to goo, essentially) long before they even realized anything had occurred.

Novovirus

I agree with Noah Smith that the real risk of AI is bioterrorism, not any nebulous superintelligence. It allows people who prior to AI would not have possessed enough skills nor knowledge to create and iterate on novel viral lines that could prove quite deadly.

Within the next decade, I’d put the odds at about 15% that someone designs and releases some virus or bacterium with AI that kills more than 100,000 people.

If I cared to do such a thing with AI, I could already do it. And I’m not nearly the smartest person around. Just depending on people not feeling like doing such a thing is not a great defense.

Cookin’ Up Some Stuff

I did not need AI to build a functional wet lab, if I’d wanted to. But I’m pretty sure with AI I could build one in 6-10 months that’d allow me to create something very dangerous very quickly. Before AI, I suspect the “creating something very dangerous part” would’ve taken me more like 4-7 years.

The important point is that this lowers the bar. Prior, only a few people with 140+ IQs working together could do this. Now, it only takes one person with ~115 IQ. And that’s an enormous difference that matters.

Dako

Yes. Canada will become “Norther Dakota.”

I don’t think Canada will collapse, though. Just become a lot more like Mexico, as they let in too many feral third worlders, and will incur the consequences of that.