You Ran

Declaring that America “lost” because a dude you don’t like is in political power is pretty weak and pitiful, as well as intellectually bankrupt.

The US achieved its objectives in the Iran war. Israel achieved some of theirs (which were not the same as the US goals). This is and would be true no matter who is president.

Oafish

The actual (not the press-focused) military objectives were achieved in the Iran war. Noah is just wrong, as are most about this. The press claims incorrectly that Iran still has a nuke program. No, it’s gone. That Iran still wants to build nukes is all that remains, and I guess that’s what the press is talking about (strangely), but the facilities are destroyed. Most if not all of the centrifuges are in tiny pieces strewn over the landscape.

Claiming the US lost the war is like believing that because Germany still exists we lost WWII. It’s just oafish stupidity and not understanding what even the actual military objectives of the conflict were.

Strait Up

Well, yeah, the Strait of Hormuz has extremely strong currents which makes it difficult to effectively mine. This is not some failure of Iran. This is just a natural feature of a strait like that. No one knows where those mines are now and probably never will.

Can Ask

(1) Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) / X

Framing what happened as an American defeat — as the press seems to be doing — is fucking insane.

All major objectives were achieved. Iran’s military capabilities were obliterated. Its nuclear program was set back by around a decade. By the by, the US does not give a crap about the Strait of Hormuz. That’s 1970s thinking. Oil just isn’t as important as it used to be, for a variety of reasons.

What happened in Iran was not great, but the actual objectives were met. That’s all you can ask for.

Now Mission

(1) Wilfred Reilly (@wil_da_beast630) / X

Exactly. Regime change was a hope only, and not super realistic given the realities on the ground.

The real purpose of the war for the US was to degrade Iran’s capability for creating a nuclear weapon. They were getting close to that and now they are probably 6-10 years away again. That was the real mission and it is complete. That is why the effort is being wound down.

War won, war lost, whatever. That’s a pointless discussion mostly related to clueless commentators bloviating. Was the mission achieved? And the answer is that it was. For now.

Leave NATO

Previously, I was mildly against the US withdrawing from NATO. Now, I think the US should exit the alliance posthaste.

Mainly this has to do with the Europeans not allowing us to use our own bases in their countries for actions that would benefit them more than they would us. But also, it developed further after seeing the disdain they expressed over our rescuing our aviator and preventing his capture by IRGC thugs.

Meanwhile, the Europoors have allowed feral third worlders to exert increasing control of their societies, assaulting and raping at will, while doing nothing to prevent this. Hell, they even welcome and promote this dystopia, and seem perfectly willing to sacrifice their women and girls to hordes of Islamic migrants for “equity.”

So, yes, the US should leave NATO. Let Europe sink or swim. They’ll sink, of course. It’s already set.

The only drawback is when Russia takes most of Europe, it’ll be worse for us. But maybe we should just let that happen regardless.

Strait Crooked

I truly do not think Trump had no plan about the closing of the Strait of Hormuz. He knew Iran would shut it down, and I believe his inaction there was deliberate.

Trump is not a genius (quite the opposite), but he is strategic, and he is revenge-driven.

The US could’ve easily kept the Strait of Hormuz open by enough prep in advance. Not doing so was a choice. A poor choice, a misguided one, but a choice nonetheless. And the point of that choice was making our allies look bad, embararasing them, and inflicting pain on the rest of the world for their lack of support (or for being rivals, like China) for our actions in Iran.

Remember, the US is energy self-sufficient now1 and we cannot even refine the oil that comes out of Iran. Our oil infra is not set up for it at all.

Though I do not believe attacking Iran as we did was the best choice, I don’t care even a little what happens to the mullahs there, and they were likely getting pretty close to having a working nuclear weapon (unlike Iraq back in 2003). This would’ve been bad for everyone, but far more so for the rest of the Middle East and Europe.

Thus, the closing of the Strait was Trump’s revenge on those who did nothing to assist in an action that directly benefited them — i.e., significantly degrading Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

The rest is just noise.

  1. Yes, yes, I know oil is a global market and gas prices rise everywhere, yada yada….

Baltic

(1) Natasha Chart ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (@heterodoxan) / X

This is about the timing I’d expect. It’d be the right season, the US is distracted in Iran and many of our important munitions have been depleted substantially.

If I were Putin, this is when I’d attack. I give this a 40% chance of occurring.

F-35 Jive

It’s hilarious that in the estimation of doofy-ass clowns that the F-35 has now “failed” because Iran scored a hit on one of them — a hit that I must point out, did not even succeed in shooting down the jet in question.

Part of the issue is due to bad marketing that you must do to get Congress to pay for anything. The F-35 was advertised to the Congress-critters as “invisible.” Nothing in the physical world is invisible. For several different reasons, this is absolutely impossible. But Congress wouldn’t vote for a plane with something as pedestrian-sounding as “radar camouflage,” which is a far more accurate description. So “invisible” it was, and funding resulted.

The F-35 is itself and makes use of amazing technology. It shredded through very advanced Chinese and Russian air defense systems like they weren’t even there. But it is neither invisible nor invincible. It is an object in the physical world. It emits massive amounts of heat. It is large. It is noisy. It can be brought down by a single bullet hitting the right place.

I’m surprised more weren’t taken out in the initial wave when Iran had the most air defense resources, truly, but I am glad they were not.

Tell you what, though. If your vaunted air defense systems can only score a single hit out of hundreds of sorties, that is not a great record. The F-35, however, is a great plane for what it is intended to do.