I’m really enjoying having “snatch yo’ ass up” arms again.
Day: March 21, 2020, 4:07 PM
Neutron Bomb
Goldman predicts that over 2 million people are going to file for unemployment benefits this week. You can barely see the 2008 crisis on this chart! https://t.co/duwpGqKHH3 pic.twitter.com/zQF38gdACk
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 20, 2020
Like a neutron bomb dropped on our society. Good luck with any purely financial solution to this because there isn’t.
Muscles
Here’s how my arm looks now:
Compared to five months ago:
Terrible lighting in that first one, but notice the greater size and definition there — and I’m not even flexing half as hard in the first one as in the second one because my tendons were sore. If I fully flexed as I was in the second one, I’d look quite a bit bigger.
I am also noticeably stronger now. It’s slow but it’s happening.
Discontinuities
Indeed it did. This was not at all reported in the general press, but it was well-known in the market community. There’s a reason I sold some underperforming stocks months before I’d ever heard of Covid-19. I wanted the free cash for what was to come.
What was to come has now arrived, and it’s so much worse because of Covid-19 — but anything could’ve triggered it.
To be clear, I don’t sell many stocks. My strategy is generally very Warren Buffet-like: I buy good companies at cheap prices and hold them a long time. I don’t sell because I think the market is going to crash. That’s a fool’s game and an excellent way to lose money on both sides of the trade. My predictive power is not that great.
However, I knew something was going to happen soon. All the signs pointed to it, so I jettisoned my losers and mediocre stocks to get ready.
Dis
Disney โย and its new CEO โ face a major challenge from the coronavirus pandemic.
No. Disney and its new CEO face a minor inconveniece. Service workers (including the many thousands working for Disney) and all those losing their jobs, most with little to no savings, are the ones who face a major challenge.
Fuck this narrative. And I own Disney stock! But this is pure capitalist boot-licking.
ฮบฮปฯฮถฯ
I'd say a *tiny minority* – the rest will go back to usual. https://t.co/jx6RRlKyNl
— GuruAnaerobic (@GuruAnaerobic) March 21, 2020
I agree, as much as I wish it weren’t true. All the evidence shows this. History suggests it takes a complete cataclysm to reset society. Covid-19 and its aftermath is not that and won’t be that.
In a year, for most of society it’ll be like it never happened. Service workers will be struggling still, but then they’ve always been struggling — just it’ll be worse. People want to forget and go back to normal. And that’s mostly what they’ll do.
Three Days
Whole lot of silence from the "flipping burgers & stocking shelves aren't real jobs" crowd these days.
— Kilderkin (@RileyGryc) March 20, 2020
Some of us already knew it, but it’s become apparent to some who didn’t realize it who really keeps society operational. Hint: it’s not white collar workers goofing off with spreadsheets. It’s the retail workers, the hotel maids, the baristas, the cleaners, the shelf stockers and the truck drivers who keep it all running. You can go a long time without some MBA and her PowerPoint slides. A very long time indeed. But three days without the grocery shelves being stocked, people start starving.
Som
We won't be locked down for 18 mos. Don't know how long, but this level of shutdown can't & won't be maintained.
We're buying time for our healthcare system to expand & test treatments that will save lives.
STAY HOME. Buy the time our loved ones & healthcare workers need.
— Inez Stepman (@InezFeltscher) March 20, 2020
Agreed. After 2-3 months, the economy would be unsalvageable. It’d look a lot more like Somalia ca. 1995 here than anyone would like.