Muscles

Here’s how my arm looks now:Compared to five months ago:Terrible lighting in that first one, but notice the greater size and definition there — and I’m not even flexing half as hard in the first one as in the second one because my tendons were sore. If I fully flexed as I was in the second one, I’d look quite a bit bigger.

I am also noticeably stronger now. It’s slow but it’s happening.

Discontinuities

Wall Streetโ€™s Crisis Began Four Months Before the First Reported Death from Coronavirus in China; Hereโ€™s the Proof.

Indeed it did. This was not at all reported in the general press, but it was well-known in the market community. There’s a reason I sold some underperforming stocks months before I’d ever heard of Covid-19. I wanted the free cash for what was to come.

What was to come has now arrived, and it’s so much worse because of Covid-19 — but anything could’ve triggered it.

To be clear, I don’t sell many stocks. My strategy is generally very Warren Buffet-like: I buy good companies at cheap prices and hold them a long time. I don’t sell because I think the market is going to crash. That’s a fool’s game and an excellent way to lose money on both sides of the trade. My predictive power is not that great.

However, I knew something was going to happen soon. All the signs pointed to it, so I jettisoned my losers and mediocre stocks to get ready.

ฮบฮปฯฮถฯ‰

I agree, as much as I wish it weren’t true. All the evidence shows this. History suggests it takes a complete cataclysm to reset society. Covid-19 and its aftermath is not that and won’t be that.

In a year, for most of society it’ll be like it never happened. Service workers will be struggling still, but then they’ve always been struggling — just it’ll be worse. People want to forget and go back to normal. And that’s mostly what they’ll do.

Three Days

Some of us already knew it, but it’s become apparent to some who didn’t realize it who really keeps society operational. Hint: it’s not white collar workers goofing off with spreadsheets. It’s the retail workers, the hotel maids, the baristas, the cleaners, the shelf stockers and the truck drivers who keep it all running. You can go a long time without some MBA and her PowerPoint slides. A very long time indeed. But three days without the grocery shelves being stocked, people start starving.

Som

Agreed. After 2-3 months, the economy would be unsalvageable. It’d look a lot more like Somalia ca. 1995 here than anyone would like.