The conventional wisdom is that Sweden would suffer just as badly economically as its peers by not imposing the severe lockdowns the other countries did. However, the conventional wisdom appears to be completely wrong:
Sweden’s economy actually grew in the first quarter after it opted against a full virus lockdown.
Meanwhile, Norway took a huge hit.
The Norwegian economy contracted 1.9% in the first quarter, the biggest drop since the 2008 financial crisis, and will shrink even more in the second quarter after efforts to halt the novel coronavirus outbreak brought many industries to a halt.
And though Finland doesn’t appear to have released Q1 numbers yet, it looks like they will suffer something even worse.
Finland’s economy will contract between 5% and 13% this year due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to Bank of Finland’s updated estimate, its governor Olli Rehn’s presentation to the government showed on Tuesday.
Of course, Sweden paid a price in the highest per-capita death rate of any country. Was it worth it? That’s a moral question that can’t be answered with these numbers. However, the expert consensus that Sweden’s economy would be just as destroyed as its peers despite no imposed lockdown seems to be completely wrong.
(I didn’t agree with these experts, needless to say.)
