Those who characterise a 'maximum suppression' strategy as a 'lockdown strategy' and who paint those of us who support it as 'lockdown fanatics' miss the point entirely. The whole point is that it is the only effective 'anti-lockdown' strategy available. https://t.co/cfcdLffwOi pic.twitter.com/sWZeN4zRYN

— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) March 25, 2021

Most of that is fantasy in most places, and some of it is just wrong. But it’s interesting to see what the techo-weenie fantasy of the pandemic is, rather than what actually works or is likely to work in most countries on the ground.

But the below is absolute horseshit:

And, of course, the vaccines make infection suppression much easier. But even using optimistic assumptions about take up and effectiveness, relying on vaccines alone would leave the R at approximately 1.6 and using more middling assumptions it would be 2.5…

— Stephen Reicher (@ReicherStephen) March 25, 2021

That’s just not even remotely true, even with variants tossed in. This is a scare tactic, like “masks don’t work and you shouldn’t wear them” at the start of the pandemic.

The reality is that once we hit around 50% vaccination in the US, the R will be about 0.7 or so and cases will start rapidly declining. Believe this mook, you will spend your time hurting more people and destroying their mental health even more.

I think a lot of people are in fact lockdown fanatics. They love the idea of it. It gives them a frisson and fantasy of control, of virtuous sacrifice to make a difference. It gets them all hot and bothered in away that pleases them. We must resist this and those people or it’ll be a world of eternal lockdowns (already probably inevitable in some places).