Panic! At The Covid Fiasco

But Samantha, panic makes the right people money, so panic we must. Ahhhh, my hair is on fire! Delta is chasing me down the street, ayiiii!

I didn’t think much of Walensky when she started, but now she seems to be on top of things so I’m liking her more. Also, this person is substantially right. Really great thread.

I will never, ever fucking forgive liberals for saying things like if you have friends or loved ones in another country, well, that’s your mistake for not sticking to someone in your own nation! And that wanting to visit them (or vice versa) some time in the foreseeable future made you evil and bad. I’m not kidding, that’s going to change a lot of my political thinking, to the extent it has not already. Fuck any of you that said anything like this, or even thought it, especially after you were all crowing about open borders for two straight goddamn decades.

That makes me more enraged than I have any words for.

Infraw

For the first time in a while, am about to offer a woman an infrastructure role, working on my team.

Not through lack of trying/searching at all. Get 500 resumes, 500 are usually from men. That makes it hard. She had better troubleshooting skills than most folks I talk to, and I am glad of that. Most people are extremely deficient in that area, especially if you cannot Google it.

I need people who can solve shit you can’t Google.

Hinting

Hint for modelers, who often seem to fail due to over-complexifying things: the winter Covid surge (and, yes, there will be one), will be best modeled by using vaccine rate with a small (1.2x) multiplier for the likely-greater transmissibility of the Delta variant, and comparing this with what happened last fall/winter.

Thus, if there is a 70% full vaccination rate, and last year’s winter case count was 40,000 per day, then winter 2021/2022 will have a case count of approximately 14,000 per day. That is how you do it if you want at all accurate results, but the temptation is to make models as complex as possible to demonstrate intelligence and bona fides.

But there’s a reason I’ve been right and, mostly, all those mooks have been wrong. And it’s gonna happen again.

Note that my numbers above aren’t predictive. I haven’t actually used case counts because I don’t have time to look them up. Those counts are for demonstration purposes only of how you’d produce a model and forecast that doesn’t totally fall on its face.

Oooh So Scare

This climate of terror benefits politicians and the rich enormously, so most of the emphasis will now be on fear-mongering, and on attempting to herd us back inside, fearfully hiding under our beds once again. It’ll be very hard to resist that pressure but it’s vital that we do.

Not many seem able to, though. Their minds are just too far gone.

What Lies Below

The pandemic allowed to be exposed the nasty streak and secret desire that many folks who claim to be liberal have for closed borders and onerous restrictions on personal freedom.

It was always there, but needed an excuse to emerge, like a demon being summoned forth with a blood sacrifice.