I keep thinking how unpredictable the attack on Ukraine appeared until the moment it happened, how unpredictable the Russian troop advance appears as we're in the midst of it and how both arcs will seem obvious in retrospect — a year, 10, 50 years from now.

— Richard Goldstein (@RichardGold68) February 25, 2022

Are you smoking crack? “Unpredictable?” This is another example of the “WHO COULD HAVE KNOWN?????” sophistry that gets trotted out every time something completely obvious happens that the “smart” people miss.

After one of my @CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine's army to push back agains the illegal Russian military onslaught.

I used a bit of "battlefield math" to explain my rationale. 1/16

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) February 25, 2022

I mostly agree with this. Russia’s forces are a little better than he’s portraying, but the reality is that Russia has a lot of tech but few professional soldiers and tons who have no ideological interest in dying in Ukraine.

Conversely, the Ukrainian forces are defending their country against an invader. This gives them a long-term advantage. If it’ll be enough, I don’t know. But it matters a great deal.