I find the takes from Ian Welsh — even apart from his pandemic silliness — increasingly flawed. This is a good example.

He doesn’t really quite get the geopolitical situation or what it entails. He makes noises in the right directions, but doesn’t actually understand it or why it’s more important to Westerners than what happened in Iraq, Libya or the Congo. There’s much knowledge but little understanding. In that, Welsh is better than most as the usual condition is no knowledge, no understanding yet no lack of opinions.

Before screeching racism, one actually has to comprehend the strategic position of Europe and Ukraine’s place in it, how this war affects Eastern and Western Europe, and Ukraine’s position as a relatively free semi-democracy on the Eastern doorstep of Europe itself. And there are also large economic considerations at play here that weren’t for the most part in all those other conflicts he mentions. There are other factors too, but my main summary while I’m attempting to work is that Ian’s take is nearly content-free and clueless.

Ian Welsh is just the other side of the old Cold Warrior, still fighting all the antiquated battles from the 1980s, just from the other side of the politicos and generals. He’s lost in that fondly-remembered past, convinced that what mattered then is what matters now, hiding behind accusations rather than recognizing that it’s a human thing to be more sympathetic to people more like you (and closer to you), and is completely unable to see the shape of the new.