I don't think it's unreasonable for people to be terrified of a very, very, very small risk of nuclear annihilation.

— James Palmer (@BeijingPalmer) March 3, 2022

I agree here. And the risk is not “very, very, very small.” I’d say it’s only mildly small, and increasing.

It’s not irrational to be terrified of nuclear annihilation because the consequences are so (literally) grave, and mistakes leading to that outcome are easy to make, have nearly occurred in the past and are likely again. In other words, we’ve just gotten lucky but that won’t always be the case.

I’d estimate the prior yearly danger of a potential civilization-eradicating nuclear exchange at about 0.05%, and have now increased to 0.1% due to the Ukraine invasion.

The left is shocked — shocked I tell you! — that people feel more empathy for those who are more culturally similar. And then call it racism. But in reality, it has nothing to do with race and is just called “being human.”

Also, spring thaw will turn the fields into swamps soon, trapping convoys on the highway. At which point, block the front and rear units and then you can pick them off until you run out of bombs.

See also the Highway of Death in 1991: https://t.co/5UjmdXnDY6 https://t.co/Ke0RHj8bKy

— Charlie Stross (@cstross) March 1, 2022

Ah yes, Charlie Stross, the brilliant military strategist…with no relevant military experience and mostly clueless about most things.

Sure, buddy.

(Unfortunately, Ukraine does not the capability to do what chucklehead Charlie is talking about. It’s not a bad plan except there is no possible way for Ukraine to pull this off, which is exactly why there is this enormous convoy now. The Russians aren’t stupid or in a panicked retreat, which is what the infamous “Highway of Death” convoy was doing.)

For a lot of liberals, prudery, fear-mongering and judging other people’s relationships inaccurately has become a poor replacement for a personality.

Was working in person with someone on my team. She asked me what I was going to do tonight. I said, “Go to the hotel, take a nap, work out and then probably read. The usual.”

She said, “Work out? Why do you need to work out, looking like that?” She waved a hand in my general direction.

I said, “That’s how I got looking like this.”

I think some people really don’t make that connection

I find the takes from Ian Welsh — even apart from his pandemic silliness — increasingly flawed. This is a good example.

He doesn’t really quite get the geopolitical situation or what it entails. He makes noises in the right directions, but doesn’t actually understand it or why it’s more important to Westerners than what happened in Iraq, Libya or the Congo. There’s much knowledge but little understanding. In that, Welsh is better than most as the usual condition is no knowledge, no understanding yet no lack of opinions.

Before screeching racism, one actually has to comprehend the strategic position of Europe and Ukraine’s place in it, how this war affects Eastern and Western Europe, and Ukraine’s position as a relatively free semi-democracy on the Eastern doorstep of Europe itself. And there are also large economic considerations at play here that weren’t for the most part in all those other conflicts he mentions. There are other factors too, but my main summary while I’m attempting to work is that Ian’s take is nearly content-free and clueless.

Ian Welsh is just the other side of the old Cold Warrior, still fighting all the antiquated battles from the 1980s, just from the other side of the politicos and generals. He’s lost in that fondly-remembered past, convinced that what mattered then is what matters now, hiding behind accusations rather than recognizing that it’s a human thing to be more sympathetic to people more like you (and closer to you), and is completely unable to see the shape of the new.