I won’t link to anything of Ian Welsh’s, but he continues his usual clownish misunderstanding of events in Ukraine — having never spoken to an actual Ukrainian person — and also does not really understand Russia’s impetus, either.
Once Russia decided to invade, Ukraine was going to suffer either way. And no, it had very little to do with NATO encroachment. That was just a propaganda excuse, like our “Iraq had WMDs” claptrap. Now, the best outcome remaining is keeping Russia tied down in Ukraine so it’s unable to invade other states that would trigger an actual full-on war with NATO. This will of course be very bad for Ukraine but good for all the rest of Europe and the United States. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova, and Poland would’ve been next on Russia’s hit list. Because of Ukraine’s resistance, that is very unlikely to happen any time soon.
Ian Welsh has a fucking terrible, child-level (and not even a bright child’s) understanding of what Russia’s motivations and goals were in invading Ukraine, is utterly clueless about how warfare works, and has no idea at all what the stakes are for not resisting this invasion. Just a total dipshit in every way it’s possible for someone to be.