my rough view is that the future will look much more like the past than the present. we are at the end of a great historical abnormality: this level of cultural stability and relative secularism is over. we’re going back to the basics of savage violence and divine faith

— Will Manidis (@WillManidis) October 5, 2025

I was talking to my partner about something very similar earlier today. The idea of continual upward progression is an illusion. Unless we make it happen. We seem to be turning away from that, so the most likely eventuality is regression to the mean.

Which is that most people are illiterate. Secularism is rare. Most states, if they exist at all, are heavily authoritarian and repressive. Wars are common, but small. Tech is still present but mostly comes from those few states that have not been Islamicized.

We should be trying hard to avoid this fate but don’t appear to be doing much.