After Democratic debates, Trump still likely to win.

I agree, as long as the economy continues being at least okay. With the poor organization of the Dems, the likelihood of them picking an automatic loser like Biden and their terrible choices in the last two years, and let’s not forget voter suppression, I’d rate Trump’s chances of winning as about 70%.

If they don’t choose Biden and instead choose Warren, I’d say it’s still Trump at 55-60%. Biden, though, is a nearly-certain loser.