There has never in modern history been a reduction in economic activity so great and so swift as what we’re experiencing now. During wartime, remember, economic activity in many places increases enormously. Thus, wartime analogies are completely invalid. It’s bad thinking.

I don’t know what exactly is going to happen. It depends on how long the economy is hobbled. But I can tell you it’s going to be not a bit like most of the pundits prognosticate or expect.

The level of apocalypticness of course depends on the length of the shutdown. Yes, yes, I understand the economy is not completely shut down — just like at first the engine in your car is not completely shut down when it throws a piston. But drive a few more feet and then it’ll be a different story.

All of the models do not apply. There is no guide for this, no map, and the tail risks are large.