Most of what we call "expertise" is just people running decent checklist scripts; that's only OK if everyone understands that
A few folks have enough of a real model to generate novel stuff with a higher hit rate than noise, but no institution is competent enough to certify them
— Mason 💦👏 & 🏃♂️✂️ (@webdevMason) April 12, 2020
That is a really great insight. I do not rely on checklists. This only works in normal times, not crises or emergencies. In those instances reliance only on checklists usually fails catastrophically.
These models in my head are exactly why people often call me “crazy” and then I often turn out (far higher than the noise rate) to be right.
Her polls are also a great insight into how poorly — very fucking poorly — even the “educated” think.
I might not get the exact outcome correct every time, but I guarantee I will best nearly all PhD forecasters in most fields every single time (politics excepted). If you think that’s arrogant, you’re wrong and I’m right — again.