I’ve had a few people from my old job, after they made fun of me back in February for preparing for the pandemic, ask me how I knew what was going to happen.

Well, I didn’t “know” in any conventional sense. I examined the risks, determined a spectrum of likely outcomes ordered by probability and impact, and decided to hedge, as a good trader always does. It’s just as simple as that. I don’t have a crystal ball or psychic powers. I just know how to manage risk.