Going off current evidence, it looks likely to me that the vaccines reduce transmission by 80-90%, and if I had to bet on a point estimate I’d bet on the high end of that. People deserve to know this when trying to make risk decisions.

— Kelsey Piper (@KelseyTuoc) February 23, 2021

Yeah, I’d say ~90% transmission reduction. And! Due to the way the virus tends to spread by a few superspreaders and superspreading events, if you vaccinate those (of course you don’t know who they are in advance), you start having an outsize effect.

That’s one of the main reasons why I say case rates will fall through the floor in summer. Assuming we get to roughly 50% vaccinated, even with variants, we’ll be ok.