Wars generate chains of unintended consequences, so you know when they start (if you trigger them) never when they end. Their duration is also fat-tailed. https://t.co/PDvtDhp2qR

— Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) March 2, 2022

I guess the war in Ukraine will last 3-5 years. Unless it goes nuclear, then it’ll all be over very quickly. But 3-5 years is my current best estimate.