Here’s something I think that non-military people don’t understand, and why they missed that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a near-certainty before it occurred: it’s almost never the case that an army is fielded and not used.

In fact, I can’t think of a single time that has ever occurred. I’d probably have to dig way back into history books to find a single example. And that’s how I knew Ukraine was probably gonna get clobbered. Simple as that.