A few weeks ago, as the "new phase" was being discussed, I suggested we should look for a couple things happening in the east and south of Ukraine.

We're very early in that new phase & there are indicators those things are happening.

Let's review what we should see. 1/12

— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) April 29, 2022

Basically my assessment too, so no need to write it up separately. (And as usual, Mark is correct and Ian Welsh is wrong, wrong, wrong.)

Giving up ground to an enemy that is not well-led and not well-supplied but has a lot of firepower is exactly the right thing to do. That enemy cannot hold it even if they can take it.