If you ask people like Ian Welsh (et al.), Russia is completely winning in Ukraine. They’ve taken territory and are holding it. They haven’t been fully repulsed and are making some gains.

If you ask others, Russia’s effort is a failure, having achieved few of its military objectives while they’ve lost vast amounts of materiel and personnel to gain comparatively little.

Looking at the situation beyond all the copious propaganda, to me it seems like Russia is “winning” about like we did in Afghanistan. They can hold ground on a map more than in reality, with a massive presence and much coercion and killing, but they have no real support and the minute there is not an active and oppressive occupation, their power is and will be essentially non-existent.

That doesn’t feel like winning to me.