Models don’t predict the future. They can’t nor are they built to do this. They just give a likely range of occurrences given certain parameters and assumptions.

However that doesn’t make them worthless. Quite the opposite.

I understand why climate scientists especially portrayed their models as more definitive-seeming than they actually were or could ever be: to battle against climate change deniers.

But the real risk that we know from models of climate change is not that climate change will magically abate; no, we absolutely know it is occurring. The risk is that we’ll get the most extreme of the possibilities outlined in models. This is what we should be mitigating against, and exactly why people in the real world buy insurance.

Think of it like this. Most car accidents don’t even produce injuries and are relatively benign. Yet some kill entire families. Because the vast majority of car accidents are just fender-benders, ignoring the financial costs, does this cause you to drive at 120mph everywhere, ignore all traffic laws, and generally just pretend invincibility? (Don’t answer this, Florida drivers — you’re different.)

Of course not.

Climate change is happening. It’s here. The danger isn’t that the models aren’t completely accurate. The danger is that the worst seen in the models is a possible outcome at all.