In this universe, strict rationality gets you nowhere because of informational limits. Rationality is bounded by these limits are their infinite combinations, and the universe from our perspective is not; therefore intuition and probability must come into play. Probability and its actualization in statistics despite what you’ve been told is outside strict rationality and logic as it’s a method of formalized guessing (or post hoc correlation if “guessing” is too strong for you.)

Rationality and logic are all very fine, in a toy universe. But this is not a toy universe and if it is the manual has long since been lost and we have to get by on gut feelings formalized (probability, statistics), correlational frameworks, and heuristics (another quasi-scientific name for “guessing”).

Formalization of methods is better than not, but it can also lead down paths where the numbers in the spreadsheet or the R program are seen as truth when in reality they are the result of well-done guessing and correlation. Rationality is an overlay that helps, but it can conceal as much as it reveals because what’s known seems rational and what is unknown seems not.