The proof that quants’ forward-looking mathematical models of the market and economy are BS is that I outperform them largely by doing the opposite of their received wisdom.

A good heuristic is if a well-known macroeconomist says to do something, do the opposite. This won’t be a winning strategy every time, but 75% of the time isn’t bad.

(In general, if you are disciplined you only have to be smarter than 60% of the people and algos in the market to significantly outperform. Luckily, this is not difficult.)