Most Americans alive today have not experienced an era of extended decline. I haven’t either, but was around people commonly as a kid who had struggled to survive through the Great Depression. I suspect the upcoming calamity will be one that most people are totally unequipped to deal with.

It’s hard to know specifics now, of course, but I expect the Trump Depression to last 8-ish years (though it could be as much as 20), at the peak to have about 40% unemployment and to result in a decrease in US GDP of 20-30% in real dollar terms.

And that’s the most likely but far from how bad it could get. Worst case could be even more horrifyingly terrible. The middle-bad case is locked in now; it’s coming, like it or not. (And no one should like it, not even the most MAGA-addled doofball.)

The last boats without crippling tariffs from China are arriving. The countdown to shortages and higher prices has begun.

I cannot stress this enough: if there is something you think might want or need in the next few years and it’s not perishable, buy it now. There’s an extremely good chance you might not be able to obtain it in the future, or perhaps ever again in the worst case. Very best case, it’ll just cost vastly more.

We’ve already bought computers and related that is likely to last 10-ish years, enough food to last a few months if we’re fairly austere ¹, some water and other supplies. We probably still should buy some batteries and related things, but what’s left is minor. We own our own home free and clear (no lien) so it’s nearly impossible to dislodge us as long as we keep paying taxes. And we live in a warm enough climate that we could survive the winter even without reliable heat and/or electricity.

We’re about as ready as we can be without going full prepper-in-the-mountains. Which we have no plans to do.

A very bad few years lie ahead of us. I hope everyone is doing the best they can to avoid the refrigerator box by the side of the road, which will be the fate of all too many Americans.

1. More than this is fairly pointless in reality.

Trump's tariffs are fucking literally everyone in the country https://t.co/GlAE3wNJvc

— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) April 28, 2025

This is going to be worse than I initially thought, so I bought more crap than I had originally planned. It’s the last chance now and in the next week or two.

Then, many many things will be vastly more expensive or impossible to get at all. It’s coming. Be warned. Or don’t. Either way, I’ll avoid doing the stupid. Maybe we should’ve immigrated, but too late for that now.

We’re here and are as ready as we can be.