Recession chance is 90%. Great Recession II chance is 85%. Depression chance is now an also-depressing 80%.
Given the above 80% chance of depression, the further likelihood it’ll be Great Depression-like is 60%, Long Depression-like is 40%.
Recession chance is 90%. Great Recession II chance is 85%. Depression chance is now an also-depressing 80%.
Given the above 80% chance of depression, the further likelihood it’ll be Great Depression-like is 60%, Long Depression-like is 40%.
Great question https://t.co/ae5gq8WuNE
— Noah Smith ๐ (@Noahpinion) March 14, 2025
I thought the idea absurd in 2015-2016 that Trump might be a Russian agent, or least on their payroll. Now I think it’s probably substantially true.
Has a country so large ever destroyed itself so quickly? Maybe Germany in the lead-up to WWII, but even that was slower if I’ve read my history correctly.
These people have literally no idea what sort of a fight theyโre in. THE WHOLE POINT IS THAT NORMAL ORDER NO LONGER EXISTS.
— Nils Gilman (@nilsgilman.bsky.social) March 13, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I stole this from someone else (can’t remember who), but they said, “They think they are in a Wes Anderson movie. But they’re actually in a Tarantino movie.”
And that about sums it up I think. The Dems are useless. As ever.
A lot of you don't realize how many privileges you enjoy on the back of the liberal global order and you will very much regret it when it collapses.
Although, frankly it looks like it was a lot more fragile than I thought. Maybe this was always inevitable.
— Glinert ๐บ๐ธ ๐ญ (@StevenGlinert) March 9, 2025
He is right. Even all the liberals chanting “Death to America” who firmly side with Hamas terrorists will miss Pax Americana and the liberal global order that rode on its back when that stability and peace is gone.
It’s going to be a wild few decades. That said, all orders collapse eventually. All systems have built-in frailties and weaknesses. The post-WWII arrangement is no different. It lasted longer than it likely should have after the end of the Cold War.
Rarely, though, has a system imploded in such a preventable and ludicrously tragicomic manner.
Elon Musk buying Twitter and bending it to favor Trump isn’t rigging the election, you fuckin’ numpties.
That’s called “strategy” and the Democrats should try it sometime. Creating a favorable information environment for themselves is something Dems are uniquely terrible at, so I can understand why when another person or entity does it they see it as cheating.
But it’s how you win. So of course they won’t do that.
It has been really sad to watch the mighty United States develop mental illness and commit suicide over the last 24 years.
Weโre consumed by irrational hate and poisoned by nonstop disinformation. No one can think clearly about anything.
This will not get better. These are our death throes.
— Kevin Gaughen ๐บ๐ธ (@gaughen.bsky.social) February 16, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Might be right, might be wrong — but we have heard this before. Read documents and commentary from the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was chaos. There were riots, the Weather Underground bombed the US Capitol building and people believed society was about to dissolve into anarchy and mass death.
But it didn’t. And that’s mostly forgotten now, even in some cases by people who lived through it.
My personal guess is that we experience a pretty bad WWIII against China, Russia and North Korea, the US pulls together and we and Europe emerge stronger with China diminished and reclusive once again.
But Trump is doing the US much damage that will not be easy to repair. I agree that it is not looking good.
I can’t believe we went and elected one of the most greedy, crooked and unqualified people of all time to the presidency.
Of course I am talking about Obama. But then we went and did the same thing with Trump.
We are not smart.
What I thought (and continue to think) about Obama:
โ He made a huge mistake in understimulating the economy leading to an excessively slow recovery
โ He was right about almost all the rest
โ Dems post-Obama efforts to be further left on everything havenโt worked pic.twitter.com/x1RubAnW2l
— Matthew Yglesias (@mattyglesias) February 9, 2025
And this is why I thought then and continue to think that Matt Yglesias is a fucking idiot.
Obama made the choice that millions of Americans would lose their homes. And yes, that was a choice — it all could’ve been prevented. That was done to save the banks and specifically the banksters who wrote all that fraudulent paper. This decision ruined many Americans economically for the rest of their lives as well as making the Great Recession worse and last much longer than it otherwise would have.
Obama also oversaw the largest loss of black wealth in history. He was and is just an evil, venal person.
As president, he had one of the greatest opportunities for real reform since the 1930s. And instead he forked over the country and its wealth the rich all so he could be a billionaire later himself. No Obama, no Trump it’s also important to remember.
The US is going to be a much more hardscrabble, much worse place after this four years. Biden did a little (far too little) to forestall the looting, while his Democratic predecessor Obama allowed the plunderers free rein.
Trump is worse — he doesn’t even really know what he’s doing; he’s just a chaos agent swinging from outlandish position to absurd action, making the pillaging unpredictable and even more dangerous.
And we’re all going to pay for our not holding Obama to account back when we could’ve forestalled most of what’s to come.
Remember how so many clowns came out of the woodwork (or the clown car) to insist that Obama had no power, that he was just a little tiny helpless baby, that there was nothing at all he could do — even with both houses of Congress and a favorably-inclined Supreme Court?
Well I fucking remember even if you do not.
Now compare and contrast with all that Trump has done. Even if you omit the items that are plainly illegal, a president can do a whole hell of a lot. Whether this surfeit of power vested in one individual should be the case is not what I am debating. And I’m not even debating if Obama was a giant useless coward or not.
All I am stating is what the evidence 100% confirms: Obama could have done a lot more and chose not to, no matter what his idiot supporters claim.
Mark Zuckerberg is back in the running for president in 2028! Or maybe it’ll be Ivanka Trump. Will the excitement never end!
Mangione mostly held center-right views. Rare these days as a political type but them’s the facts. Not that a single person alive seems to care about what is and is not a fact anymore.
That was always performatively aimed at other white liberals. It was never about Native Americans or anyone else.
Here’s my land acknowledgement: This Land is Your Land. Hope that landed well.