Politics

Offices

Chill Politics, Prediction

I am the worst at political predictions, so take this with a grain of salt the size of Saturn, but I predict that Harris will narrowly defeat Trump, the coup attempt will last a few months but fail as some key Republicans turn against him (and he will have zero military support) and Harris will take office, perhaps a little late.

There will be some political violence but as most Trump supporters are obese 52-year-old white men who can’t run more than 10 feet without keeling over dead, it won’t amount to much.

Chaos Agents

Chill Politics

Support Trump or not, it’s clear that the media enables him. They allow his campaign to get away with saying and doing things that would immediately lead to any Democratic candidate being torpedoed and tossed out of the race. There are dozens of examples and they are not hard to to find, so I won’t enumerate them all here.

This is, largely, because doing so makes the media orgs more money. It’s also about fear, too, but for my entire life the Republicans have been held to much lower standards of behavior and policy clarity. That has only worsened with Trump.

Cat-eating Haitians? Come on. It not possible to stoop lower than an attempted coup, but that’s pretty low.

Putin Worship

Chill Politics, War

I find many people’s views on Russia and Ukraine terribly naïve and vile. Alas, many of these people are ones I formerly liked and respected.

It’s a terrible thing to realize that those you formerly appreciated as thoughtful and empathetic are just fine with the genocide of Ukrainians and the high likelihood of Russian invasion of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. And then the concomitant multiple scores of thousands of deaths of US citizens as we will be fighting in those countries too.

I cannot say I understand and frankly, I do not wish to.

New Newfoundland

Chill Politics, War

I’ve seen more than one person arguing that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is justified because Russia thinks that the Ukrainians are actually Russians1.

I think that Canadians are really Americans with worse haircuts and food. Ergo, that means we should invade Canada and correct their Tim Hortons- and poutine-worshipping ways.

See how insane that sounds?

  1. Which isn’t even really true, but let’s say it is for the sake of argument here.

Box Of

Chill Politics, Rant

People who think Harris saw the questions before the debate, you are fucking idiots. Those are the same questions they ask during every presidential debate and have since rocks were new.

What are you, 11?

There’s actually quite a lot to criticize Harris on but none of the conservatives seem to have the intellectual capacity to do so.

Claims and Games

Chill Gutter Philosophy, Politics

Trump’s or Harris’s chance of winning the presidency is 100% or 0%. The percentage that you’re actually measuring in a one-off contest that is not repeatable is the confidence in your model. So if you say, “Trump has a 55% chance of winning,” you’re really making a claim that you think your model has a 55% chance of being correct in that direction. These are two different things!

Yes, I know it’s pedantic, but in a single unique event what you’re confident about and what your actual claim is matters.

Chamberlain

Chill Politics, War

It’s still happening even with modern conflicts. Just today, saw some goober arguing that it’d be better (more “peaceful”) if Ukraine had just rolled over and surrendered to the Russians because Putin had very valid security concerns that justified killing tons of Ukrainians, and that the rest of Eastern Europe should also acquiesce when Putin comes calling (also for “peace”).

These people are terrible. But they are common.