I’d put the odds of a recession at 90%1, the odds of a Great Recession at 65%, and the odds of a depression similar to the 1930s at 45%.
We are fucking up big time.
Prediction
Not So Peaceful
1) Americans need to get that if Putin wins in Ukraine with a peace deal that is good enough that it vindicates the invasion, World War 3 is far likelier.
2) Europeans need to get that the era of fantasy politics – being the “regulatory superpower”, giving up economic growth to…
— Sam Bowman (@s8mb) February 28, 2025
If Putin gets a favorable peace deal, Russia will be rolling into Berlin in 2030. Anyone with a clue knows that is the goal.
Hello Goodbye
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q1 GDP will be -1.5%… a contraction. Last week it was +2.3%.
Great Recession II incoming. I warned y’all and now here it is on the way.
Easiest prediction in the fucking universe.
Coinage
Jobless claims spike, in worrisome sign for the US labor market.
The economy is about to step in DOGEshit.
Genie-al
The next phase of putting the information genie back in the bottle is increasing (US) state-level tech regulation that de facto bans services like Mastodon and anything else similar to it.
This will be done under the cover of protecting “privacy” and “for the children” but will really be for the purpose of making sure nothing that’s not large-scale and easily-controllable can exist.
It’s already starting. And many so-called liberals will be right on board with this.
Sold Out
Now that America is in the hands of enemies, those same enemies will have free rein: Invasion of Taiwan by China is likely in October of 2026 when the weather is favorable and Trump is at his weakest.
I suspect Europe will not organize itself to help Ukraine with needed materiel and thus it too will be defeated in 2026. After that, Russia will regroup for a few years and then invade the Baltics in 2030, then Poland and Germany in 2032.
Isn’t the future fun? Told you that you’d miss Pax Americana when it was gone. Those of you who survive it, that is.
GRII
Great Recession II: Immiseration Boogaloo inbound.
Do prepare, if you can. Try to have a deep emergency fund. Secure another income stream. Determine if you live in a non-recourse state or not if the worst happens.
But it’s comin’, y’all.
Neville
Don’t sell out Ukraine like they did Czechoslovakia in 1938.
It didn’t work out in 1938. It won’t work now.
Appeasing genocide loving dictators never works.
— Margo Gontar (@margogontar.bsky.social) February 14, 2025 at 7:03 AM
Margo is right. Selling out Ukraine now means we’ll be fighting Russia in Germany in ~2030. That’s almost a guarantee. Poland and the Baltics will be done for as well.
GR2
How DOGE Could Spark a Financial Crash.
Indeed. I now put the chances of a Great Recession-like event in the next two years at 90%, which is the highest I ever go for any systemic event.
This is directly due to the immense destruction being wrought by President Musk and his lapdog Trump, to be completely clear.
Overground
It has been really sad to watch the mighty United States develop mental illness and commit suicide over the last 24 years.
We’re consumed by irrational hate and poisoned by nonstop disinformation. No one can think clearly about anything.
This will not get better. These are our death throes.
— Kevin Gaughen 🇺🇸 (@gaughen.bsky.social) February 16, 2025 at 11:51 AM
Might be right, might be wrong — but we have heard this before. Read documents and commentary from the late 1960s and early 1970s. It was chaos. There were riots, the Weather Underground bombed the US Capitol building and people believed society was about to dissolve into anarchy and mass death.
But it didn’t. And that’s mostly forgotten now, even in some cases by people who lived through it.
My personal guess is that we experience a pretty bad WWIII against China, Russia and North Korea, the US pulls together and we and Europe emerge stronger with China diminished and reclusive once again.
But Trump is doing the US much damage that will not be easy to repair. I agree that it is not looking good.
The III
WWIII has already started. I mean, obviously. Well, if you have a brain attached.
Future historians will mark the date of its commencement as of February 20, 2014, the first Russian invasion of Ukraine. I’m guessing it’ll end somewhere around 2040, unless we nuke ourselves all to hell. Then it could be sooner.
Lin
Indeed. What the russians heard loud and clear: I’m here today to directly and unambiguously express that you are free to invade anywhere in Europe at your own convenience and timetable.
— Maria Popova 🇨🇦 (@popovaprof.bsky.social) February 12, 2025 at 4:03 PM
The Baltics, Poland and also likely Germany are totally fucked now. I’d guess Russia will push into Berlin sometime between 2030-2032.
Rising Recess
Suspension of inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong.
Buncha stuff about to get fucked, y’all.
I’d put Great Recession II: Immiseration Boogaloo chances at 80% now.
Not So Great
The chance of a Great Recession type event due to Trump I’d now put at 65%. Prepare accordingly.
Prone
I am going insane. This company will lose $10bn this year! Generative AI has peaked! There isn’t a sustainable business model, and the products are mediocre and error prone and don’t even do anything cool despite costing billions and accelerating climate change and stealing everybody’s artwork!
— Ed Zitron (@edzitron.com) January 22, 2025 at 6:03 PM
I like Ed, but this is a clueless take. He’s not thinking predatorily enough, like an MBA would. The point of GenAI is to eventually replace workers, not to be these little toys we have now. The MBAs simply DO NOT CARE if AI does not do work that is as of the quality that a human can do. If a GenAI costs 1/20 the price and does work that’s only 1/4 as good — that is still a net win. In MBA thinking, anyway.
Ed is wrong, wrong, wrong. “Mediocre and error prone” at a low price is just fine in capitalism. Preferred, even, if it never talks back, never demands higher wages and has no actual human needs.
Understand this or you understand nothing.