We’ve really done Ukraine dirty. And by “we,” I mean the US, NATO and the EU. We allowed them to absorb all the Russian aggression and revanchism while providing just barely enough support to survive.
And we’ll pay for that. More specifically, the Baltics, Poland and Germany will. At least they’ll get it the worst.
Wait and see.
I now put the chance of an extended war in Europe (outside of Ukraine) with Russia at 65%.
And the probability of war with China that starts over Taiwan at 90%.
Yup. And it’d only cost around $100 billion to fill the desert1 with enough solar panels and batteries to power the entire United States year-round forever.
The problem is not cost. Nor even what is possible. The problem is will. We could do so much more than we have done. And we should. The future does not belong to faint-hearted, anemic degrowthers cowering before the god of lost causes and reveling in their prostrate servility. The degrowthers claim that tech will not allow us to survive what is coming. But that is completely wrong. In fact, it is the only thing that will.
We undertake insanely ambitious projects or we die. It’s as simple as that.
As I’ve said before, we must become the gods that we pretend to be.
It looks like the future of Europe is to be a stagnant backwater where the standard of living slowly declines. It’s likely to be overrun both by Russia and by mobs of economic migrants with Enlightenment-hostile values and cultures.
My guess is that the region will deteriorate for 200-300 years and then as those mobs aforementioned and their terrible cultures cool out, it’ll flourish once again — after some brutal wars and genocides.
Good times, good times.
The Price of Russian Victory: Why Letting Putin Win Would Cost America More Than Supporting Ukraine.
Allowing Russia to defeat Ukraine would cost the United States about seven times more than preventing a Russian victory.
Far more than that. Because if we let Russia win, we’ll be fighting Russia in Poland in 2028 or a bit later. I’d estimate the financial cost of that war at $5 trillion or so. And that’s only the monetary burden; hundreds of thousands to millions will be killed and lives will be disrupted forever.
We should not let that happen. But we probably will.
This is correct; we are already in WWIII’s beginning phases and we should act like it. There is a certain inevitability to these things. We are making it worse, not better, by not helping Ukraine enough. I don’t completely agree with Kyle but we’re on a path globally that leads to a world-devastating conflict, with very few realistic ways to avoid it.
Our goal now should be to make it the least bad and shortest war possible. Which we in the US are not doing at all, and neither is Europe.
This is not the direct setup for the Taiwan invasion. That’ll occur in 2026-2027 while Trump is at his weakest. This is a test to see how the US and Europe respond to provocations. This is a common Chinese tactic that produces extremely valuable real-world data on likelihood of aggressive retaliation, determination of actual effects of communications being severed, and movement of forces in the area in which the sabotage was conducted and in other areas as well.
This is a dry run for a future, much larger operation and not the operation itself.
If Russia nuclear strikes Ukraine, would the West really follow up with nuclear counter strikes?
No, that’s not what would occur. NATO and the US would utterly destroy Russia’s military capabilities using conventional means, though. And perhaps even occupy Moscow temporarily.
However, what China would do is another matter. That I don’t have a lot of insight on but I can guarantee it would not be nothing. Most likely it would occupy significant parts of eastern Russia and Siberia, I’d guess. But that I’m less clear on.
AOC is 100% correct, and this is exactly what I was saying earlier today. https://t.co/WhrxlQTpMU
— Noah Smith 🐇 (@Noahpinion) November 15, 2024
AOC is right. That’s some bad shit, man. Russia won’t even stop at Poland. They’ll be in Germany before 2035.
How bad is it? This is very bad, and we are not nearly ready for what’s coming our way.
Agreed. Possibility of economic depression in the next few years. War also, and a large one at that.
This is going to be a very bad four years. Or more. Likely many more.
Well, yes. But we’ll also probably have a huge war too. So there’s that.
There is about a 60% chance democracy in America is over now, that we’re just in the waning phases. Democracy wasn’t always the last word on good, but it was good while it lasted.
What’s next is gonna be a ton of fun, I’m sure.
I feel truly terrible for what’s about to happen to Ukraine over the next year or so. The death and destruction will make what’s occurring there now seem like a fun day in the park.
Every single one of you motherfuckers was wrong about why Musk bought Twitter1 and I was right. You were clowning on him for “losing money” but I understood the game he was playing because I’d be doing the same thing myself if I had that much scratch. As a financial transaction, it never made sense; but it was never about the financials and was always a political project.
I’m terrible at forecasting political outcomes, but just about everything else I’m pretty damn good at it.
Get used to it because it’s gonna keep happening.
So, Russian meat waves in Poland in 2027-2028?
Meat waves in Berlin in 2030 or so.
Argh.