Yep. Europe (including Ukraine) is on its own now, as are Taiwan and the rest of our Asian allies. Hope they are ready for what’s next. Because we’re not.
Prediction
Warch
Because of Trump, war with China around 2027 is extremely likely. We will get clobbered.
Soon it’ll be a good time to start buying whatever electronics or gadgets you want, as they will become unavailable or absurdly expensive in that timeframe and for quite a few years thereafter.
Prep Time
If Trump wins fair and square — which looks likely — start prepping, because Russia and China are gonna really fuck us, and soon.
Get ready. I absolutely assure you this will happen.
Dimon-stration
Jamie Dimon says World War III may have already begun.
Unusually for him, Jamie Dimon is 100% correct. We are already at war. It’s just so far a low-intensity war1 and we aren’t acting like it yet.
Referencing a Washington Post article, Dimon continued, “World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries.”
This is accurate. We could forestall a greater conflict now if we wanted to, but no one is even attempting that. We should be doing these things:
1) Evicting Russia and DPRK from Ukraine post-haste.
2) Preventing Israel from further (justified) killing in Gaza and Lebanon.
3) Building up our defense base to be about twice what it is now, concentrating on aerial and naval drones, and much better coordination with our allies.
4) Forcing other NATO members to increase their militaries greatly as we will not be able to fight Russia in Poland and China in the South China Sea at the same time.
5) Reshoring as much industrial production as quickly as we possibly can.
The above is how we prevent WWIII and if that fails, how we make it the least bad catastrophe it can be. Because it’s coming and no one seems to notice or really care.
Some Election
Remember, I am horrible at political predictions, unlike most of my others. I think I never take into account how incredibly stupid and uninformed the average is. That said, this is what I predict:
- Harris will win 51.5% of the popular vote
- Trump will underperform the polling
- Harris will win Pennsylvania and Nevada
- Trump will attempt a coup and the inauguration will be delayed 2-3 weeks, but lacking military support the coup will fail
Here’s my Electoral Map:
Thousand Times
This is correct. The cheaper something becomes, the more there tends to be of that thing. The main effect of AI on bureaucracies and your relation to them is that instead of having 40 pages of paperwork to do, you’ll have 4,000. The AI will fill it all in but you’ll still have to review and correct it all.
And if you think this is not what’s gonna happen…well, prepare to be wrong. It is inevitable.
Couped Up
If Harris wins, will the Supreme Court steal the election for Trump?
This is the most likely coup path and the only plausible one as Trump will not have the support of the military at all (usually necessary for a coup).
Also, he’s old and tired so that makes doing the coup more of a challenge. But if he does pull it off, the Supreme Court is the way it’ll go down.
Cassandra
Now I know what the people felt like warning before WWII that the world was on the brink of a major conflagration and no one listening.
We are there again and again no one pays even a bit of a attention. Well, not no one. Very few and even they don’t treat it seriously. This is not gonna be pretty.
Please Let’s Graduate
If it weren’t for the Electoral College, the election would not even be close. I predict Harris will get 52% of the popular vote. And still might not win.
That Light is a Nuke
Fuck me, if Trump wins, Ukraine will be crushed and thus there is an 80% chance we will be fighting in Poland by 2032. Same for the South China Sea but that’s like 90%+. Trump absolutely will sell out Ukraine, Taiwan and all our allies.
If Harris wins, there’s still a large chance of the above but it’s more like 30% for Poland and 70% for SCS. Better, but not great.
WWIII, here we come I guess. Fucking hell.
Narrative Control
Polls for the presidential election are gonna be way, way wrong again and then we’ll have to spend another four fucking years being gaslit about how “the polls were really correct” and that “the experts actually did get it right” when anyone with an ounce of sense and statistics knowledge can tell that’s just utter bullshit.
I’m really looking forward to that.
Throw Over
I give this a fairly high probability.
Knife
I agree with Noah Smith here.
Although it’s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, it’s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China — thus dramatically weakening America’s own ability to resist those enemies in the future.
This is an extremely likely outcome of a Trump victory. And that, therefore, will make WWIII far more likely as well. Either that, or the below — followed by WWIII.
If the U.S. abandons resistance to China and Russia, it will go very badly for America’s allies. Europe will probably fracture again, with some states (probably including Germany) falling all over themselves to appease the Russians. Russia will then become a sort of de facto hegemon in Europe. In Asia, China would probably conquer Taiwan, cutting off U.S. semiconductor supplies and establishing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Japan and South Korea would then be forced to choose between either becoming nuclear powers or becoming de facto satrapies of the new Chinese empire. Essentially, America’s major allies would fall to America’s enemies.
It is indeed, as Noah observes, a very dangerous time.
Vas
The end result of the Russo-Ukrainian war is that Ukraine will lose some territory, and Russia will become a vassal state of China.
Russia will then be goaded by the CCP into attacking the Baltics and Poland so China can take Taiwan while the West is distracted by having to fight in Eastern Europe.
Offices
I am the worst at political predictions, so take this with a grain of salt the size of Saturn, but I predict that Harris will narrowly defeat Trump, the coup attempt will last a few months but fail as some key Republicans turn against him (and he will have zero military support) and Harris will take office, perhaps a little late.
There will be some political violence but as most Trump supporters are obese 52-year-old white men who can’t run more than 10 feet without keeling over dead, it won’t amount to much.