The free world teeters on the edge of a knife. If Trump is elected, there will be no liberal great powers left in the world.

I agree with Noah Smith here.

Although it’s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, it’s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China — thus dramatically weakening America’s own ability to resist those enemies in the future.

This is an extremely likely outcome of a Trump victory. And that, therefore, will make WWIII far more likely as well. Either that, or the below — followed by WWIII.

If the U.S. abandons resistance to China and Russia, it will go very badly for America’s allies. Europe will probably fracture again, with some states (probably including Germany) falling all over themselves to appease the Russians. Russia will then become a sort of de facto hegemon in Europe. In Asia, China would probably conquer Taiwan, cutting off U.S. semiconductor supplies and establishing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Japan and South Korea would then be forced to choose between either becoming nuclear powers or becoming de facto satrapies of the new Chinese empire. Essentially, America’s major allies would fall to America’s enemies.

It is indeed, as Noah observes, a very dangerous time.

I very much hope we do not go to war with China, to be clear. It would be disastrous for both countries and for the world. We should do all that is reasonable to prevent this outcome that still protects our own valid interests while not leaving our allies to hang¹. But part of that prevention is putting in place a strong deterrent, i.e., a military with enough resources to plausibly fight and win a protracted war if needed. In the realpolitik of nations — which resemble corporations in their amorality — that ability to be a lethal snake in the grass is the only deterrent that matters. Therefore, at least in this case, being prepared for that war is an excellent way to prevent it ever occurring.

Harris seems to understand this, at least. It remains to be seen if she acts on her understanding if she wins and the inevitable coup is not successful. If there is a coup in 2024 or 2025 that ousts her and installs Trump, I’d expect the war with China to occur during the middle of his term as he’ll be even more weak and incompetent than his first already-dismal effort. And the nation will be in chaos. This will be all China needs to do what they are already planning to do. They absolutely will not ignore that opportunity. And no, we will not be able to avoid that war even with Trump at the helm, but what we will be is utterly unprepared to fight it.

One of the main reasons I support Harris is that attempting to forestall the war with China is something she’ll be better at in every way possible. And right now preventing that war while readying ourselves to fight it is the most important issue we face. It’s far more important than climate change, disease prevention, crime or anything else that most people seem obsessed with. But it’s been a long time since a war had any real effect on the US so people have forgotten.

There is no perfect candidate. There is no truly just war. But we are coming up on some pretty hard years ahead. We need to prepare for them, whatever they might bring. Trump will be completely incompetent at the project of averting war or prosecuting it in the highly-likely event Ares does point his blood-stained finger at us once again. This storm is coming whether we like it or not. The only thing to do now is get ready as best we can.

1. As they would, mostly, without us when China gets squirrelly.