War

Knife

Chill Politics, Prediction, War

The free world teeters on the edge of a knife. If Trump is elected, there will be no liberal great powers left in the world.

I agree with Noah Smith here.

Although it’s not possible to know for certain what the consequences of a second Trump presidency would be, it’s very possible that it would result in the U.S. essentially surrendering its European allies to Russia and its Asian allies to China — thus dramatically weakening America’s own ability to resist those enemies in the future.

This is an extremely likely outcome of a Trump victory. And that, therefore, will make WWIII far more likely as well. Either that, or the below — followed by WWIII.

If the U.S. abandons resistance to China and Russia, it will go very badly for America’s allies. Europe will probably fracture again, with some states (probably including Germany) falling all over themselves to appease the Russians. Russia will then become a sort of de facto hegemon in Europe. In Asia, China would probably conquer Taiwan, cutting off U.S. semiconductor supplies and establishing Chinese hegemony in East Asia. Japan and South Korea would then be forced to choose between either becoming nuclear powers or becoming de facto satrapies of the new Chinese empire. Essentially, America’s major allies would fall to America’s enemies.

It is indeed, as Noah observes, a very dangerous time.

Front Grunt

Chill War

Our number one goal right now militarily should be evicting Russia from all of Ukraine (including Crimea) so we don’t have to fight Russia in Poland and the Baltics in ~2030 while China attempts to take Taiwan.

That is going to be the play now that Russia is a vassal state of China. We simply do not have the capability to fight on two fronts like that, even with allies assisting. Yes, I do mean that there should be US and NATO troops in Ukraine fighting alongside Ukrainian forces. And more importantly, combat aircraft and more air defense.

We’ve allowed our enemies the ability to set the stage now. We should short-circuit that while we still can.

Damn, I miss the ’90s.

DPRK

Chill War

That should be much bigger news. But the press corps is a charred husk of its former self, too concerned with placating and pleasing those in power that it cannot recognize what in former times would be a story worth telling — one that will change the future and is likely to lead to a wider war.

Follow

Chill War

I know it’s the Kyiv Post so there is “bias1,” but we betrayed the Ukrainians, no matter what any doofus leftist type claims. We promised them security if they’d get rid of their nuclear weapons and otherwise disarm and we didn’t follow through on that.

And because of that betrayal, we’re likely to be fighting the Russians in Europe within the next 10 years. Good job, us.

  1. More here a “factual assessment of what actually occurred.”

Stick

Chill War

Not a noble death at all. Sinwar was responsible for getting dozens of thousands of his fellow people killed — which was the whole point of the October 7 Hamas operation. None of it brings Shani Louk or the others who died that day back, but a well-deserved death indeed.

Close Approach

Chill War

Every time I watch crap like this, I do not understand what the fuck the Russians are doing. Why did they just roll up on an enemy tank? Why do their main guns never fire? What was the purpose of any of that?

I know the Russians might eventually win just on mass of materiel, personnel and outside help (China, North Korea) but damn they are not smart. My guess is that the Russians thought the tank was completely disabled (it at least partially is, as it’s smoking and never maneuvers as well as never using the coax gun), but approaching a known enemy tank that is not confirmed dead is FUCKING SUICIDE.

As we can see.

Knowing the Future

Chill War

The other day, I saw some clown in a now-lost article claiming that only psychotic people go to the Combat Footage sub-Reddits and places like that. While I am sure that there are some of those types there certainly, many of us go there to see what the present and future of war will be like. Because there will be war or at least the threat of it — that seems a human constant. If it’s not with Russia or China (for the US), it will be with some other entity.

Is it so hard to imagine that a lot of people view combat footage to try to forestall those future wars and instead of being psychopaths, are working to bring about peace with the knowledge of what might occur? For many, it appears even thinking about war — or having anyone else ponder it — is a norms violation. But not considering what might happen is also very dangerous as then you cannot prevent it nor prepare for it.

In the movie version of LOTR, Éowyn says, “Those without swords can still die upon them.” There, she was arguing for why women should be allowed to go into battle. In our world, her observation applies: those who don’t care about drones and AI-based drone swarms can still be killed by them. In this world we don’t need to teach everyone to fight, but attempting to understand how war works now and how it will play out in the not-too-distant future will be key to perhaps preventing that war from occurring at all or making it a much shorter affair.

Brothers, sisters, sometimes we must study war to ensure the peace.