Idiotic restrictions. Without the ability to strike equipment staging areas and troop rally points behind the lines, Ukraine has no hope. I am glad Ukraine violated these pointless constraints (if they did). It’s hard to fight the enemy with one hand tied behind your back.
I think this incursion is from a military perspective strategically pointless, but from a political perspective is probably useful.
Kursk: Russia says it halted a Ukrainian incursion into its territory. Evidence suggests it hasn’t.
Oh, I have no doubt that Russia halted the advance of Ukrainian troops. This was a risky, bold move against a foe with a lot of resources and no concern with human life. But I doubt that they’ve driven the Ukrainians back yet.
The whole point of this is to make the Russians feel vulnerable to attack. Anyone who went on this raid knew it was a suicide mission and most of them will stay in place until they’re dead. Against a determined enemy operating with that mindset, the Russians will find them to be hard to kill and hard to displace.
Was this worth it for the Ukrainian side? If I were a commander, I don’t think I would’ve done it. Losing hundreds of people in something doomed to fail when soldiers are already in short supply seems not a great idea. But I’m also not that PR-focused. And the PR side of demonstrating that Russia cannot operate with impunity and is itself vulnerable is worth something — both as an advertisement for more aid and to sow doubt in Russia itself.
I see those getting destroyed all the time. They are big, slow, and their armor is not great. That drone signal is terrible; must be tons of jamming equipment in that area. But not enough.
Some free advice: When it looks like China is likely to attack or even blockade Taiwan, buy whatever computer or tech stuff you want immediately. And that does include these days cars. Because once that starts happening, anything tech-related or with a bunch of tech in it is, first, going to get very expensive and then it will be unavailable altogether for 3-10 years.
That “buy immediately” advice also includes items not made in or near Taiwan due to the cascade effect.
I will put a note on this blog when it’s time to start buying. Listen or not, I don’t care. But I will be right.
JDAM bomb launch against Russian positions by Su-27 fighter. Date not mentioned.
Strange days, with JDAMs on a Flanker. I also saw Storm Shadows on an Su-25 the other day.
To those not familiar with military crap, both of these are like putting a Honda transmission in a Ford and having it function correctly. Those weapons are just not at all designed to work with Eastern Bloc-originated planes in any way, shape or form.
The favored Russian tactic now is recon by force across the vast front line, sending small teams to probe Ukrainian dug-in areas. When that team gets obliterated, they send in a larger probe with fresh meat which they force the survivors of the first raid to join. It carries on this way till they all die, which usually happens quickly enough.
Sometimes, though, this tactic gains the Russians a few hundred meters. Maybe one out of ten times. And that’s how the Russians are very slowly and bloodily taking more Ukrainian territory. No casualty evacuations, no retreats. No Russian soldier even attempts to surrender. In fact, many Russian troops commit suicide once they are too injured to walk. Surrender is pointless; once the Russians are exchanged as POWs, they are punished severely and then returned to the front lines for another suicide mission.
The above is what Ian Welsh et alia see as winning. This is why I will never understand Welsh’s and other people’s Putin worship. It is a psychotic way to fight a war. All wars are evil, but the Russian tactics are on another level of moral repugnance. And yes, this is all true. The unedited videos are available for anyone to watch.
Putin worshipers should be forced to go fight for the Russian side. Perhaps they will renounce their clownery if they manage to survive a meat wave or two.
Regional war brewing in the Middle East, regional war in Ukraine and soon-to-be war in the South China Sea. We are entering the era of conflict once again. No matter what Pinker with his nonsense has claimed, what really occured since WWII is that we had a lull similar to the relative peace after 1815. (Shattered, of course, by WWI’s guns of August.)
The world is busily getting back on track for some major incidents of slaughter and suffering on a scale not seen since 1945. It’s pretty much baked in now. And just wait till the AMOC collapses and so does India. Dang, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.
This is why tanks in urban areas against any sort of provisioned foe do not work. Hell, with ubiquitous drones these days even in non-urban environments MBTs are not great. But in an urban area any mook with an RPG can get right on top of you from on the street or the buildings nearby.