War

The Times

Chill Political Economy, Politics, War

Priorities for the new year:

1) Constrain Russia and China enough to keep them from steamrolling most of Europe and Asia, respectively.

2) Prevent third world Islamic migration from destroying Western Civilization.

3) Reverse the trend in the US of anti-wind, anti-solar and anti-battery sentiment. This antipathy to the inevitable future is more dangerous over the long term than what Trump is doing directly.

Cripes, we have a lot of shit to do. Best get started.

Fronting

Chill War

Eh, the age of front line infantry is drawing to a close. The Russia-Ukraine war is not going to be the typical case as the Ukraine side is very personnel-constrained and the Russians are as well, just less so.

Neither side is or can execute any combined arms maneuvers or achieve tactical breakthroughs leading to meaningful gains simply because they do not have the people to do so vs. the drone threat. With better-staffed and higher-quality military organizations that can execute rapid armor advances with adequate air power combined with quality air defense, the battlefield will look much different.

In a real unit capable of maneuvering with credible drone defense in tow, the true front line will be an AI-based autonomous drone mobile picket for both recon and force projection that both attempts to wipe out enemy drones and the command and control of said drones. A few kilometers behind this line will be APCs, short-range air defense, other armor, as well as self-propelled howitzers and the like. In these APCs — protected by platforms such as the Skyranger 30 — will be infantry capable of rapid dismount and dispatching remaining resisting enemy infantry. The need for this capability will not go away any time soon.

This is a more realistic scenario than what Noah is expostulating here for major power and even many regional wars.

Sys and Sys

Chill Prediction, War

Systems Confrontation and System Destruction Warfare.

Finally! Someone who knows what the fuck is going on and how China will handle a war with the US.

Yes, this is how China would do it. I could’ve written this myself. If I’d had an army of consultants and a boatload of time. There are still people left somewhere who can think about the actual world as it is rather than as they imagine it to be. Cool.

Paying Out

Chill Prediction, War

Russian spy ship ‘directed lasers’ at UK forces, says defense secretary.

Again, NATO is already at war with Russia. It’s just that no one besides Russia is acting like it.

We should actively be kicking Russia out of Ukraine now with 500,000 troops as well as shoring up defenses in the Baltics and Poland. Germany as well.

But we aren’t and won’t. And we’ll pay for that heavily in a few years.

Actual War

Chill Prediction, War

No, China won’t do much if any bridge-blowing. First, it’s not a very effective tactic compared to the alternatives. Bridges are extremely strong (for obvious reasons) so it’s not actually easy to take most of them out with conventional weapons. Second, the US has an extensive road network with many alternate routes.

What China would actually do to hobble our logistics is bomb our seaports and data centers. This is much easier, much more effective, and these are vastly harder to do impromptu repairs on.

Trialing

Chill War

Trial run for defending Taiwan. (Yes, I know Venezuela isn’t an island, yada yada.)

Nator

Chill Annoying, War

This is not a good nor fair comparison. The Russian 30mm dual cannon is intended for an entirely different use than the 25mm M242 Bushmaster. The “Terminator” is built mostly for suppressive and area effect fire and generally would send a whole lot of HE-FRAG downrange. The M242, though, is for more constrained fire and is not really intended primarily to be a suppressive or area effect weapon.

In other words, the “Terminator” barrels are supposed to move around like that during operation. This is how the ammo gets spread around when it reaches its target distance. Let’s not allow our hatred of Russia and its actions get in the way of the truth. “Terminator” == working exactly as intended.

BMP Boom

Chill Evil, War

Russian ops are always so incredibly disorganized. What is even going on there? Yes, yes, it’s hard when you’re under fire. But those people simply do not know what the fuck they are doing. They are wasting so much for so little. And doing it all so very badly.

Start End

Chill War

Agreed. He was more lenient than I would’ve been after October 7, but he got the job done.

One of the reasons the Western left is in shambles now is they were terrorist supporters (of Hamas and Hezbollah) and those organizations are essentially dead and gone. Good fucking work. And I believe every dude in the photo with Shani Louk in the back of the truck is now deceased. Good riddance but no great loss to the world.

It took me a while to realize that nearly all those crying about “genocide” in Gaza are just Jew-haters pretending that helping vile terrorists is now their raison d’être, but alas it is true.

Funny, starting wars and then screaming “genocide” when the natural result of a war you began comes down on your head.

Cuts

Chill Prediction, War

Yes. China’ll be taking out satellites, cutting undersea cables, hacking infrastructure and bombing data centers.

How do I know? Because that’s what I’d do, and I’m awesome at this shit.

Gonna Need Some Gaza on That

Chill War

Israel should’ve given three days to evacuate, then leveled Gaza. It’s what I would’ve done. I would’ve assisted settling the displaced Gazans in other Arab countries, though no one really wants them. Who would?

Slam

Chill Prediction, War

In the near term, Russia and China are the greatest risks.

In the medium term, though, nuclear war with an Islamicized Europe is a pretty significant risk. Assuming the current trends continue, an Islamic, extremely repressive Europe is likely in 40-60 years. They’ll have French (or Pakistani, or both) nukes by then.

And that’ll be very bad for the US.

Testing the Waters (and Airs)

Chill Evil, War

We’re already at war with Russia.

My guess is Russia will take Estonia first. The supply lines are more favorable and they have a weaker military than the other Baltic States. And from there, it’s easier to invade Latvia and Lithuania.

Gonna be a lot of death in non-Ukraine Europe in the next 2-10 years. And I blame Russia shills as much as anyone.