We are probably already in recession, by the way.
Because the economy is a large and slow-moving beast and difficult to assay, recessions often aren’t declared till well after they begin — sometimes 6-8 months after.
Hope you enjoy President Rubio!
We are probably already in recession, by the way.
Because the economy is a large and slow-moving beast and difficult to assay, recessions often aren’t declared till well after they begin — sometimes 6-8 months after.
Hope you enjoy President Rubio!
How do you figure we are already in a recession again?
The big recession supposedly ended in June 2009, but recovery was anemic until about 2014 or so. The loss was so precipitous we only got back to the same number of jobs right then, never mind quality or pay. I only noticed the teeth whitening kiosks return recently.
Lots of reasons — the NBER is always months behind declaring the actual recession.
Retail sales have dropped, as before most recessions.
Factory orders have also dropped.
U.S. export growth is falling, and corporate profits are on the decline.
Any of those alone would mean little — all at once with China increasingly shaky means a recession is probably already in progress.
Historically, we’re due — and lots of headwinds out there economically. Throw in a Fed rate hike, I’d say about a 70% chance we are already in one and about 95% chance if not that there is a recession within the next 8-10 months.