My prelim analysis.
Obviously, the polls were very wrong. But why?
From what I can tell, Trump get a much larger percentage of the Republican woman vote than expected, and (likely) slightly higher than Romney in 2012. Misogyny at least among this group didn’t tarnish him at all.
And he got a larger percentage of the Latino vote than Romney. Not surprising — legal immigrants often absolutely loathe illegal ones.
My private supposition: enough Bernie voters moved to Trump to also tip the balance.
The narrative will be just that rural enraged white males made the difference. But I’m guessing that the above factors I mentioned are the real difference.
I’ll just put in a quick plug for my blog (recently activated). I’ve written some about the election and will probably write more.
The writing’s pretty bad right now (I’m just slappin’ them out and shovin’ em out the door) but will probably get better (it will probably not get better).
I’ve been on a pro wrestling kick lately (classic stuf not modern) and blame that partly on the election itself as a few months ago I realized that that’s what this campaign reminded me more than anyting else – a pro-wrestling angle from the 1980’s…
https://cliffarroyo.wordpress.com/
Nice. Reading it now. And no worries about the writing. Most of my posts are composed in about five minutes (and it often shows).
True about professional wrestling.
Actually, the real issue is that if Hillary had scored 2% higher in all of the battleground states, she would have won the Presidency. Guess whose poll numbers went down by 2% when the Director of the FBI intervened in an election and basically claimed that she was a criminal about to go to jail?
Yup.
This was basically an FBI coup. Let’s just hope it doesn’t end like most coups, with the long knives coming out as the coup-makers nervously take out anybody who they feel may threaten their coup.
I know that’s becoming the narrative, but the emails were already an old story (though rehashed) when Comey did that. Random polling errors could also account for that, or the weather, or the fact that all elections have somewhat-large fluctuations near the end.
I tend to believe it had no real deleterious effect, but no way to prove that empirically.
Don’t forget the smartphones!
If Hillary’s staff knew how to use computers instead of relying on smartphones all the time she would be president elect today. The whole private server was set up because they were just using smartphones instead of computers.
Smartphones, they ruin everything.