In about three months or so if we don’t restart the economy, very bad things will happen. People are making analogies to the Great Depression but that’s not likely or valid; far more probable is that it’ll look like what happened to Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s. Russia had somewhere in the neighborhood of two million excess deaths as a result.

The resulting economic fall here will be far worse, and the sociological resiliency to handle it is also just not present. I’d say the excess deaths therefore will be minimum 20 million, and possibly as high as 40 million.

If you think this is sensationalism and idle speculation on my part, just wait. I’ll be right and you’ll be wrong. Though it won’t matter much. I’d rather be wrong.