Antibody tests are coming online. Never before have humans needed to understand Bayes rule more. Let's talk about why it's critical NOT to assume you are immune to covid-19 when you have a positive antibody test. Seriously, people need to understand this to prevent many deaths.

— Taal Levi (@taaltree) April 10, 2020

Good thread. I already know this but people really do need to understand this better.

They won’t, of course, because it’s a small bit difficult and has nothing to do with the Scary Orange Man in the TV.

Reported US coronavirus deaths:

Feb. 12: 0 deaths
Mar. 12: 41 deaths
Apr. 12: 22,073 deaths

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) April 13, 2020

And in reality, probably 40,000+ deaths so far. We’ll see later after statistical analyses of excess deaths.

One of the largest pork processing facilities in the US is closing until further notice.

Supply chain breakdowns beginning as predicted. Food prices will rise and the unemployed will have increasing issues with food security. Food banks will be unable to supply need any longer. It will get worse from there.

I-
What does this even mean pic.twitter.com/7VSGJHcEhc

— yeff (@yephph) April 12, 2020

Umm. Huh. That is a company one would not want to work for anyway.

Goldman Sachs abandons its bearish near-term view on stocks, says the bottom is in.

Goldman Sachs is probably wrong, though I only have about 60% confidence in this. This depends on if we go into a depression, or a mega-depression, which in turn depends on how soon we can re-open the economy.

If “just” a depression, stocks have probably already bottomed. If mega-depression, then they’ll go about 50% below where they are now.

Just too many unknowns, although there likely aren’t many unknown unknowns. All the paths are bad, and we’re going to walk at least one of them.

And of course Matt Yglesias was, as one would expect, absolutely on board the harmful conventional wisdom express. I guess there were no Bangladeshis in factories to advocate murdering the day he wrote this. (h/t @Econ_Marshall) pic.twitter.com/MQTQrFhQPB

— Matt Stoller (@matthewstoller) April 12, 2020

As always, fuck Matthew Yglesias.

Employment is a social relationship. It is entirely defined by where the check comes from and under what circumstances it is given. The whole point here is to freeze that social relationship in place so it’s still there when the pandemic is over. https://t.co/74h3q2c1vK

— Jeff Spross (@jeffspross) April 12, 2020

Wow, people are just powerful stupid. Of course you can keep people employed this way. That’s all employment is — a tacit agreement, invisible but real. Preserving that arrangement is exactly what that check does.

I am always surprised by how volubly clueless so many people are. Being clueless is ok, I guess, but do you have to advertise it so loudly and publicly?

Every CEO of a medical equipment company that charged a state more than four times the pre-Corona prevailing price should be hauled into Congress to provide a cost-based justification for the price hike. pic.twitter.com/tLFiBJ1bp8

— Hal Singer (@HalSinger) April 12, 2020

No. Just executed. Simple enough.

One reason to attempt to be healthy, be a normal weight, and lift heavy things if you can is that when something like Covid-19 comes to kick the shit out of you, you have a much better chance of standing up to that onslaught.

That’s not speculation; that’s what the evidence shows. As with most ailments those who are obese, who are not fit, who are already halfway to death’s door get there much sooner when something like this pandemic strikes.

Death comes for us all. But you don’t have to leave out the welcome mat.

Joe Biden will be the next Herbert Hoover:

✅ Ineffective halfway measures
✅ Widely despised
✅ Quickly forgotten https://t.co/kHCOSKgezl

— Data Science Proposal Generator (@datascigen) April 11, 2020

No. Herbert Hoover won. Biden is not likely to do that IMO. So he won’t get the chance to be as terrible as Hoover.